A former Citigroup trader is now predicting that the bitcoin downtrend could last another 18 months, mirroring the “nuclear bear market” the crypto industry experienced in 2014 and 2015. Writing in Friday’s edition of the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, Hayes doubled down on that portentous outlook.
What a difference a few months can make. It seems like a lifetime ago that Arthur Hayes, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives platform BitMEX, predicted that the bitcoin price could reach $50,000 in 2018. In fact, it has been less than six months, though the events that have occurred during that interlude have been sufficient for Hayes to slash his short-term crypto forecast by more than 95 percent.
While chart-watchers often treat bear markets as beginning as soon as an asset dips below its cyclical peak, Hayes said that a better strategy may be to mark the beginning of the bear market as the date at which the bitcoin price falls below its 200-day moving average (DMA). By this metric, bitcoin entered bearish territory on March 12 when it was priced at $9,152 and has only seen a 37 percent decline since dropping below the 200 DMA.
“How low can we go?” he asked. “A 75% fall from $9,152 takes us close to $2,000. $2,000 to $3,000 is my new sweet spot but don’t tell Michelle Lee just yet.”
Hayes also cited the decline in bitcoin volatility as justification for his bearish outlook, taking a different tack from Fundstrat founder Tom Lee, who said that he was “pleasantly surprised” to see the decline in volatility given conditions in the broader equities markets.
“Contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin requires volatility if it is ever to gain mainstream adoption. The price of Bitcoin is the best and most transparent way to communicate the health of the ecosystem. It advertises to the world that something is happening–whether that is positive or negative is irrelevant.”