• BTC lost 60% value in 2022 and is currently 75.65% down from its all-time high. 
• Eth also lost 70%, and the index of the top 100 coins lost 65%.
• Cathie Wood’s portfolio is down by 60%.

Everyone was excited about the future of the crypto industry by the end of 2021. BTC came from its all-time high of $68,789.63 on November 10, 2021. The emotions were so exhilarating that people predicted that Bitcoin might cross the $100,000 mark soon. But sadly, the market went down. The industry suffered due to crypto winter, Terra ecosystem collapse, FTX implosion and the contagion effect that followed. Implying that the projection went seriously wrong as the crypto leader lost 60% of its value in 2022.

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood was among the supporters of the claim of BTC touching $100,000 by 2030.  

She still does not seem to fade away from her claim and is still positive that BTC could touch the predicted value. However, her portfolio sunk by 60%, probably due to buying stocks a bit too early.

2022 was a bad year for the whole industry as ETH lost 70%, and the index of the 100 largest coins showed a drop of around 65%. 

Why do Projections Fail

A major problem that hinders these outlandish projections is the lack of proper and sufficient analytical support to back the claims. These claims are generally in the upward direction, which is mouth-watering for anyone. But are seldom supported by believable evidence. 

Peter Tchir, a microeconomist, strongly believes that the BTC price forecast is overhyped as the majority of predictions by prominent personalities lack the foundation of fundamentals. When a CEO of a popular exchange hints at a BTC price that is significantly higher than its current rate, Tchir hints that the CEO might be pushing their incentives, as they want it to thrive.

Tchir also suggested that the media should not present a permanent bull position to incentivize price rises. 

“There are a lot of rules surrounding announcements and prognostications from CEO’s, and even pundits, in the security markets. Shouldn’t we be doing a better job on crypto?”

Crypto investors should be aware that the industry is inherently challenging to analyze. Even if someone manages to filter out the useful information in this huge industry with lots of variables, the fact is that the industry is still very young and largely untested. Meaning that there are limited proven models, strategies and theories available to help in the assessment.

Even if price predictions are made in a sophisticated manner, there are still many variables that could affect the outcome. Generally, investing in non-crypto assets is also risky, but more so in the crypto industry. 

Hence it is advised for a crypto investor to take these predictions with a grain of salt, and the threshold of succeeding is greater in the industry. 

Nancy J. Allen

Nancy J. Allen is a crypto enthusiast, with a major in macroeconomics and minor in business statistics. She believes that cryptocurrencies inspire people to be their own banks, and step aside from traditional monetary exchange systems. She is also intrigued by blockchain technology and its functioning. She frequently researches, and posts content on the top altcoins, their theoretical working principles and technical price predictions.