Bitcoin (USD) Begins New 4-Year Cycle: Analyst Shares Bear Market Expectations

Bitcoin usd has entered a new four-year market cycle in 2025, marking the start of what Rekt Capital identifies as “Candle 1” – the period typically associated with bull market peaks.

The cryptocurrency began the year with consecutive green daily candles, trading between $91,000 and $101,000 as it tests key resistance levels. This phase represents the first year in Bitcoin’s new cycle, with 2026 projected as the next bear market period.

The timing carries extra weight as Bitcoin attempts to break above $101,000, a level Rekt Capital notes requires a daily close and successful retest for confirmation.

Early December price action showed how such technical confirmations opened paths to mid-$100,000 levels, creating a blueprint for potential moves in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin usd current price action and support levels

The $93,200 level has emerged as Bitcoin’s foundation across multiple timeframes, according to Rekt Capital’s analysis. This price point acted as resistance in Q4 2024, but Q1 2025 has transformed it into support.

When examining recent market behavior, this level provided a base during Bitcoin’s 15% pullback, proving its strength across daily, weekly, and quarterly charts.

Looking at current trading ranges, Bitcoin USD moves between $91,000 and $101,000, with the black resistance level at $101,000 requiring special attention. For traders seeking confirmation of an upward break, Rekt Capital explains that two events must occur: first, a daily close above $101,000, and second, a successful retest of this level as new support.

This pattern mirrors December’s price action, when similar technical confirmations preceded moves into higher ranges.

A key feature of the present market structure is how $93,200 connects different timeframes. On quarterly charts, it marks a transition from resistance to support. On monthly charts, it provides a foundation for recent price action.

Weekly charts show it helped stop the recent decline. This alignment across timeframes creates what traders call “confluence,” making the level particularly reliable.

Bitcoin technical patterns and market structure

Rekt Capital identifies a monthly bull flag pattern forming in Bitcoin’s price action. This pattern uses $93,200 as its base, while $96,450 marks the flag’s upper boundary.

Recent months have seen price wicks extend above this upper level, suggesting building pressure. If Bitcoin breaks higher, the $96,450 level could serve as a support during future pullbacks in January.

To help traders understand this setup: Think of the bull flag like a coiled spring. The tight range between $93,200 and $96,450 represents compression, storing energy for a potential move higher. Just as a compressed spring releases with more force, longer periods of price compression often lead to stronger breakout moves.

The price action tells a story of accumulation. Each test of the $93,200 support strengthens it, as more buyers step in at this level. Meanwhile, the wicks above $96,450 show sellers cannot maintain control at higher prices. This battle between buyers and sellers creates the flag pattern that often precedes larger directional moves.

Bitcoin usd four-year cycle implications

Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles, marked by numbered candles that help traders track market phases. We’ve just completed Candle 4 (the halving year) and entered Candle 1 (the bull market peak year).

This timing tells traders two key things: first, the most parabolic price moves typically happen during Candle 1, and second, 2025 marks the final year of the current bull run before the 2026 bear market.

Think of Bitcoin usd four-year cycle like seasons in a year. Just as winter inevitably follows fall, bear markets follow bull markets in Bitcoin’s pattern. The current phase – Candle 1 – represents spring, when growth happens fastest. This pattern has repeated since Bitcoin’s creation, with each cycle bringing higher peaks before the inevitable cooling period.

Rekt Capital emphasizes understanding this cycle timing helps traders plan ahead. While the current period promises strong upward moves, it also marks the last chapter of this bull market.