The Coinbase Premium Index recently shifted from a negative to a positive territory — an increase in US institutional demand, coinciding with BTC price rise.
Over the past week, the Index moved from -0.024, a high of 0.013. This change coincided with a price increase in Bitcoin, visible from the upward movement in price approaching $102,000.
Historically, positive Coinbase Premium Index indicates that BTC is selling at a higher price on Coinbase compared to other exchanges.
This is suggestive of stronger buying interest from US -based investors.
The rise from negative to positive values, especially the significant spike observed on February 3rd, corresponds with bullish sentiments among institutional investors.
If the premium sustains its positive stance, it could signal continued institutional interest.
This could drive Bitcoin’s price above the current levels toward $103K as seen in early February.
Conversely, should the index revert to negative, it might indicate waning institutional interest.
So that would risk a drop in Bitcoin’s price, potentially testing support levels previously observed near $96,400.
What the Risk Index Says on BTC Price Potential Bottom?
Further analysis show that the Risk Index suggested heightened risk as BTC neared $100K in early January.
Subsequently, the Index sharply declined, now stabilizing around the value of 11.95 as BTC price hovers between $97.2K and $98.5K.
This decline in the Risk Index coincided with Bitcoin’s stabilization in a critical price zone ahead of anticipated macroeconomic volatility.
Historically, a declining Risk Index following a spike has indicates reduced market anxiety.
It could suggest that the market believes BTC has found a bottom in this price range.
Should the Risk Index continue to remain low post-volatility, it might confirm investor confidence that a sustainable price floor has been established.
Conversely, an increase in the Index could signify growing market fears, potentially leading to further price drops.
This scenario would likely see BTC price testing lower support levels, possibly down to previous lows seen in the market.
The current stabilization of BTC’s price alongside a declining Risk Index offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for investors.
It hints at a potential end to downward trends if supported by continuous low-risk levels and positive market responses to global economic shifts.
Bitcoin’s Inverse Correlation with US Index
The relationship between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) often highlights inverse correlations, where Bitcoin’s value rises as the dollar weakens, and vice versa.
Historically, this trend has provided insight into broader market sentiments and risk appetite.
However, recent data suggests a shift. Despite the DXY climbing from 104 to 110, indicating a strengthening dollar, BTC also surged from under $70K to over $110K, deviating from previous patterns.
This simultaneous rise could suggest a weakening of the traditional inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the dollar.
Various factors, including institutional investments, increased recognition of Bitcoin as a stable asset, and broader economic dynamics, might be contributing to this change.
Notably, the Dollar and Bitcoin Rate of Change (RoC) chart from the past six months provides clear evidence of this deviation.
The RoC for BTC showed significant peaks and troughs that did not consistently align with movements in the DXY, particularly noticeable from early 2022 to 2025.
This phenomenon could indicate that Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven asset.
It is less influenced by traditional market movements and more by its own market dynamics and global liquidity cycles.
The current state suggests we might be nearer to a liquidity bottom rather than a peak, potentially fostering more stable conditions for BTC price growth.
If this decoupling continues, BTC may well behave more independently of traditional economic indicators like the DXY.
Conversely, should the correlation re-align, Bitcoin could experience price adjustments in response to significant shifts in the dollar’s strength.
