Solana price is has been trending lower and consolidating after recent highs around $168. With the market cooling, traders are asking whether this is a continuation of downside pressure or the beginning of a deeper shakeout prior to a major rebound.
Some analysts believe SOL price may dip to $105, but if bear trap signals confirm, a rally toward $260 remains possible.
Solana Price Approaches Critical Support Zone
The recent drop from $168 has brought Solana price into a technical decision zone. According to Analyst Batman, the current setup is similar to a typical bear trap.
According to his model, Solana price may dip briefly to $105 before sharply reversing. After the potential shakeout, his chart showed steep V-shaped recovery to an ultimate upside target of around $260.
The support at $105 falls into line with long-term pivot levels and is aligned with long-term demand zones.
This price territory already caused significant rallies at the beginning of 2024. In the short run, the area of between $135 – $140 is acting as a buffer and the sentiment is weak.
Fibonacci Levels and MACD Structure Point Lower
However, not all analysts agree on an immediate rebound. Man of Bitcoin made emphasis of a corrective wave pattern ratified by Fibonacci levels.
According to his analysis, Solana price may still be completing a downward ABC correction. Important support areas will be at the 0.618 level at around $122.77 and the 0.786 zone around $109.84.
The structure holds as long as Solana price stays below its recent swing high near $147. Should price lose the $130 leg in volume it may validate the C-wave leg and intensify the move in price to the $105 level.
His opinion corresponds to bearish MACD alignment, which is not yet demonstrating a bullish divergence on higher time frames.
Technical Indicators and Whale Wallets Signal Inflection
In addition to the price action, momentum and volatility indicators are sending important signals. The daily RSI 35 proved that the asset is at the verge of being extremely close to oversold.
The 6-hour chart stochastic RSI is beginning to turn up at the lower limit implying the possible re-entry of buyers.
Bollinger Bands have kept squeezing and the narrowing volatility has pushed the squeeze. Should Solana price be able to break higher out of this compression then levels between $156 and $260 come into focus.
Whale wallets remained notably active as blockchain data revealed significant long-term staking and accumulation below the $140 level.
While retail traders appear cautious, large holders seem to be preparing to adjust their positions. Moreso, open interest is stagnating, yet should a breakout happen beyond this zone, the momentum can change rather soon.
W-Pattern at $139 Holds Reversal Promise
However, analyst BitGuru is tracking a W-pattern structure that may confirm a bullish reversal if Solana price holds above $139.55.
His chart indicated a completed double-bottom pattern with an upside break out at $168.49 and a clean retest on the neckline.
Provided the support at $139.55 holds, BitGuru expects a rise of up to the $156 level as the pattern unwinds. This target is also consistent with the previous retracement Fibonacci level at 0.382.
The Bollinger Bands in the 4-hour chart supports this setup with the price compression around the neckline.
BitGuru further argues that if momentum shifts upward from this level, Solana price could invalidate the bearish wave structure and begin a sustained recovery.
This would open up the way once again, to the level of $200 and eventually, to $260 in the longer run.
For now, a breakdown below $139.55 might be confirmative of the bear trap prediction and indicate a flush to $105. However, a reclaim of above $150 would support SOL price breakout of the $156 level and beyond.
