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- 1 Galaxy Digital research predicts Bitcoin price could grow by 74% within a year of the spot BTC ETF launch.
- 2 Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $34,147 marking a 20% increase since the last week.
Bitcoin (BTC) broke the much-awaited resistance at $30,000 recently. The jump was so quick that it did not even see if the reason was actually concrete. The flagship cryptocurrency price nowadays is subject to updates on much-awaited financial products, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Recently, crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital came up with an estimation of potential BTC price and ETF market size increase following spot ETF release.
According to a blog post released on Tuesday, October 24, within the first year of Bitcoin ETFs’ launch, BTC price would see an increase of 74.1%. The market size of spot BTC ETFs could go up to $14.4 Trillion within a year following their launch.
A research associate at Galaxy Digital, Charles Yu calculated the figures and published the estimates. He used the gold ETFs as a baseline and found the numbers after evaluating the possible impact on BTC price after the fund inflows to Bitcoin ETF.
Bitcoin will see a 6.2% increase in the first month of ETF launch and then it will start dropping in the months to come. By the end of the 12th month, the monthly increase will be dropped to 3.7%. Considering the continued growth for the whole year, the cumulative growth will result in an increase of about 74.1%.
Yu did not disclose a definitive number since there are no confirmed signs of spot ETF approvals. Also, consider the price on September 30, 2023, for the base, when BTC was at $27,000. After considering the same level as the base, the estimated growth may result in the BTC price hitting around $47,000 in a year after the ETF launch.
However, the BTC price may be around $59,000 given the existing trading price of $34,284.
Bitcoin ETFs’ overall market cap is also going to see tremendous growth in the years to come. For the second year, the market size will hit $26.5 Trillion while it will reach $38.6 Trillion in the third year after launch.
Meanwhile, the estimated inflows in the Bitcoin ETF for first, second, and third will be $14.4 Billion, $26.5 Billion, and $38.6 Billion respectively.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs—Still at a Cliffhanger
The speculations and estimations are roaming around highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF launch. The broader crypto industry is aspiring to see one soon. There were many attempts made in the past when entities filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). None of it got an approval.
However, the optimism around spot ETFs was raised with prominent traditional financial institutions including BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and VanEck, among others who filed to launch the financial product. These applications are also under the observation of the U.S. financial regulator with the possibility of delay or even rejection.
While putting forward the estimation, Galaxy Digital associate also considered these factors and mentioned that BTC price prediction is subject to being affected by them.
Yet, the optimism of having a Bitcoin Spot ETF soon is quite high. The recent pump in BTC price proves the investors’ eagerness. Reuters reported that traders saw the ticker of BlackRock’s proposed spot Bitcoin ETF listed on a prominent post-trade settlement house, Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC).
Later, it was clarified that the ticker had been there since August and was not indicative of any possible approval from the regulator. Until the clarification, the BTC price moved up to 20% and hit $35,000 on Tuesday. At the press time, Bitcoin (BTC) settled down and traded at $34,147.
Adarsh Singh is a true connoisseur of Defi and Blockchain technologies, who left his job at a “Big 4” multinational finance firm to pursue crypto and NFT trading full-time. He has a strong background in finance, with MBA from a prestigious B-school. He delves deep into these innovative fields, unraveling their intricacies. Uncovering hidden gems, be it coins, tokens or NFTs, is his expertise. NFTs drive deep interest for him, and his creative analysis of NFTs opens up engaging narratives. He strives to bring decentralized digital assets accessible to the masses.
