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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will The Escalating Tension In The Middle East Undermine Halving?

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Bitcoin Price Prediction
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Bitcoin is the biggest digital asset in the market with a dominance of 54.1%. Meanwhile, with the rising tension in the Middle East, BTC is struggling to keep up the pace. The rising tension between Israel and Iran had an adverse effect on overall market conditions. A UK foreign minister has confirmed that Israel has decided to ‘act’. If the tensions escalate between these two countries, then the downtrend could prolong.

Source: Ycharts

Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,500 with a market cap of $1.24 Trillion. The average transaction fees of the BTC rose in April 2024. The current transaction fee for Bitcoin is $13. It will be interesting to see how the Txn fee reacts after the Halving.

A Historical Look Into Bitcoin Halving

Bitcoin Halving is a crucial event in the overall market which occurs roughly every four years or after every 210,000 Blocks are mined. After the halving, the reward given to miners for validating transactions is halved. It reduces the rate at which new BTC are created and added into supply. This mechanism is designed to control inflation and maintain the integrity of the Bitcoin network, often leading to increased market interest and price volatility.

Nov 28th 2012: The First Halving

Source: TradingView

The first halving sliced the reward per block from 50 to 25. The price of BTC on the halving day was near $12. After the first few months of the halving, the hash rate of Bitcoin declined. Meanwhile a proper bull run for Bitcoin occurred in early 2013 when the price rallied from $13 to $1000.

July 9th, 2016: The Second Halving

Source: TradingView

The second halving sliced the reward per block from 25 to 12.5. The price of BTC around that halving was near $600. After a few months of halving in 2017, the Bitcoin rally begun and reached the peak of $20,000. This was one of the first time when the crypto currency came in the limelight.

May 11th 2020: The Third Halving

Source: TradingView

The third halving slashed the mining reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. At that time, the price of BTC was around $8600. After the halving, Bitcoin price rallied to a high of $65000.

Many analysts are speculating a rise in the BTC price upto $100k after the halving in April 2024.

Technical Analysis Of BTC Price

Bitcoin is currently trading near the value of $63200 with a drop of 8.5% in the last seven days. The overall trading volume of the BTC dropped over 18% in the past 24 hours. BTC has seen a bearish crossover from the 50 DMA and is trading above the 100 DMA. If the asset price surges above 50 DMA after halving then a strong momentum in price can be seen in future. The RSI of BTC is near the value of 40 with a bearish slope in it. The overall sentiment of the indicator is bearish.

Conclusion

Bitcoin halving is less than 50 hours away and many people are eagerly waiting for it. The block reward will drop to 3.125BTC while the difficulty of the network is expected to rise. Meanwhile, it will be exciting to observe the crypto market during the coming bull run,

Disclaimer

The views and opinions stated by the author or any other person in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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