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Last week saw a remarkable rise in the U.S. dollar against a range of fiat currencies, inducing notable pressure on risk-prone assets such as bitcoin (BTC). Despite this, the premier digital currency managed to maintain critical support, signaling an optimistic market outlook.
Data provided by the charting platform, TradingView, showed the dollar index, a measure of the U.S. dollar’s performance against other major fiat currencies, marking a significant increase of over 1.3%. This growth indicates the largest single-week percentage surge since the month of February.
BTC vs USD
Simultaneously, BTC price experienced a 5.8% downturn, reinforcing its well-established inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar. Regardless of this downward trend, there was no successful attempt by sellers to break below the 200-week simple moving average – a key technical indicator that previously acted as a resistance line in February.
“By retaining this crucial average, market bulls have demonstrated the long-term bullish trend’s resilience,” noted one of the leading market analysts who oversees crypto market performance.
There was a further suggestion that the cryptocurrency would need to surpass the $28,500 mark to lure tentative buyers, who are currently waiting for stronger evidence of a halt in the price decline. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $27,400, marking a 1.4% increase for the day, after achieving a high of over $31,000 last month. Some market spectators predict that the dollar might sustain its upward trajectory, potentially restraining further cryptocurrency gains.
Ilan Solot, co-head of digital assets at Marex, voiced similar sentiments, stating, “The dollar is poised for a rebound as markets adjust expectations of future FED easing. My fundamental FX outlook: over extended periods, currencies are influenced by real growth differentials and political considerations. However, in the short run, it all boils down to navigating relative central bank policy.”
Analysts at Swissblock Insights shared a comparable view, adding that a resurging dollar could continue to strain BTC as its connections with traditional finance are becoming more pronounced.
Bitcoin Wallet Growth Amid Price Downturn
Last year, Bitcoin’s price saw a decline of over 65%, triggering a significant increase in the number of wallet addresses holding at least one Bitcoin. The sharpest increases coincided with a severe market crash in June and subsequent to the bankruptcy filing by FTX on November 11.
As Bitcoin’s price fell from its November 2021 highs, the number of “wholecoiner” addresses grew by a remarkable 190,000 since early February 2022.
Glassnode co-founder Negentropic, communicating with his 54,000 Twitter followers, stated that the most opportune time to buy Bitcoin is during a “bloodbath” in the market. His comments followed a series of major bank failures in the U.S., and the potential delay of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Despite the symbolic one million mark, analysts from Gate.io outline that it’s important to note that a single Bitcoin wallet address doesn’t always represent an individual person.
Many cryptocurrency investors own multiple Bitcoin addresses, and other addresses are held by large entities such as cryptocurrency exchanges and investment firms that usually possess substantial Bitcoin holdings.
Data from a cryptocurrency analytics provider, reveals that out of approximately 19 million Bitcoin currently in circulation, 1.89 million, worth around $50.7 billion, are held by major centralized exchanges.
BTC utility as the main driving factor
The valuation of Bitcoin, like any asset, is significantly influenced by its perceived utility. Bitcoin’s utility arises from its unique attributes, such as decentralization, limited supply, transactional anonymity, and cross-border operability, which make it a viable digital alternative to traditional currencies and a potential store of value.
For instance, its utility in countries with economic instability, where traditional banking systems are unreliable, can be substantial. Additionally, Bitcoin’s utility as a medium of exchange in online transactions, particularly where traditional payment systems are cumbersome or expensive, also adds to its value.
Therefore, the more useful Bitcoin is deemed in these contexts, the higher its demand and, consequently, its valuation. It’s worth noting, however, that utility isn’t the only factor driving Bitcoin’s value. Factors such as speculation, regulatory developments, and broader market sentiment also play a crucial role.
With the rising number of BTC holders, rises its utility. It is fair to note that some of these holders may not be looking to use the asset in any way other than speculative, but even speculation is a use case and the increase in Bitcoin holders is a positive sign.
The rise of BTC value is a matter of time and as per the above comments by industry’s key opinion leaders, the best time to buy the asset is when it is low. Therefore, like always, Bitcoin remains to be a prospective asset for those looking for a long-term investment. And yes, this is not trading advice so you should always do your own research and never invest more than what you can afford to lose.
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