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- 1 Bitcoin halving is likely to take place in April 2024.
- 2 Crypto analyst Flibflib stated BTC price broadly consolidated since last halving.
One of the major events in the crypto industry, Bitcoin halving, is around the corner. The halving is likely to take place during the second quarter of next year. If the event of BTC mining fees gets halved, the price of crypto assets is expected to soar. Analysts have different takes regarding the issue, with the majority of them estimating BTC price to achieve unprecedented levels.
Recently, prominent crypto analyst trader and Decentrader co-founder, Flibflib, took to Twitter (now X) to share his perspective on Bitcoin halving and its effect on the price. The analyst told his 85K followers that since the previous halving in May 2020, Bitcoin price has been consolidating.
Bitcoin might be underwhelming to bullish investors following its 70% gains in the first quarter, but according to Filbfilb, there aren’t many aspects of BTC’s price movement in this halving cycle that differ from its past cycles.
The analyst explained that Bitcoin had been through 1200 days since the previous halving and historically, it had entered a phase of consolidation during this time.
Using a range of comparative charts, Filbfilb anticipated that miners would initiate a trend of increasing prices leading up to the Bitcoin halving, typically taking place approximately 1,276 days following every previous halving event.
Flibflib noted that miners have the motivation to ensure prices are comfortably higher than their marginal cost leading up to the halving. Whether through conscious collusion or not, they share an incentive to drive prices up before their marginal revenue gets halved.
He also mentioned that intelligent investors keen on capitalizing on the positive potential impact of the halving, by “buying the rumor,” had also supported the market in previous years.
Calculating from the 2020 halving, the figure 1,276 points to early November 2023 as a potential timeframe for such behavior to become evident. Filbfilb projected that in terms of timing, the fourth quarter (Q4) appears to be a crucial period for BTC. During this time, supply is likely to tighten, and fresh investments prompted by speculative activity are expected.
He mentioned that until that point, it would be uncommon for Bitcoin to experience an upward breakout and a more plausible scenario is that it would undergo consolidation. Nevertheless, between the present moment and that point, there could be unexpected challenges for Bitcoin, including the impact of United States macroeconomic policy.
Risk asset bulls are paying special attention to the September session of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where decisions about benchmark interest rates will be made. Filbfilb characterized the macro aspect as undoubtedly the dominant factor influencing the situation.
The crypto investor wrote that if the situation remains stable, he expects the dynamics of game theory to unfold, resulting in a strong possibility of Bitcoin surpassing the $30,000 mark before the end of 2023.
However, if a more pessimistic scenario unfolds and Bitcoin’s price retreats to $20,000, the current peak for 2023 at $31,800 might continue to hold its significance.
Finally, the analyst concluded by suggesting that if such an event occurs and extends beyond a brief period, the surge preceding the halving might only elevate Bitcoin’s price to the levels already witnessed in 2023. Any breakthrough beyond that point would likely happen later.
Adarsh Singh is a true connoisseur of Defi and Blockchain technologies, who left his job at a “Big 4” multinational finance firm to pursue crypto and NFT trading full-time. He has a strong background in finance, with MBA from a prestigious B-school. He delves deep into these innovative fields, unraveling their intricacies. Uncovering hidden gems, be it coins, tokens or NFTs, is his expertise. NFTs drive deep interest for him, and his creative analysis of NFTs opens up engaging narratives. He strives to bring decentralized digital assets accessible to the masses.
