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- 1 Bitcoin could be moving from fear to greed; BTC volatility remains low
- 2 A descending wedge pattern indicates a potential for 20% increase upon breakout.
- 3 Analyst Willy Woo sees initial signs of a trend change in BTC network flows, with a resurgence in net flows from US spot ETFs.
Bitcoin’s price has decreased since March 14th following a bearish, low-volatility trend and is now trading within a tight range.
The battle between bulls and bears in the cryptocurrency market was fierce. However, the dominant trend appeared to be bullish since the BTC price traded above the 200-day EMA.
In addition to that, Bitcoin price volatility has remained low, indicating a subtle shift in the market toward stability. The chart below shows the difference in volatility within the movement of the BTC price. Upon analysis, the volatility in the BTC price has not significantly increased, indicating higher price stability for BTC.
BTC Price, and Volatility 1week | By Santiment.com
Additionally, the price of BTC appears stable at levels above, indicating that sellers are not as active yet and buyers may push the price higher.
Bitcoin Market Moving From Fear To Greed
Moreover, with the fear and greed index at 55, it shows that investor greed is rising from lower levels, suggesting a higher likelihood of acquiring BTC crypto at higher levels. This indicates that the purchasers have a positive outlook on the cryptocurrency.
Fear & Greed Index | By Alternative.me
Fear and greed shows a slight recovery from fear last week to a little bit of greed this week, which goes on to show improving psychology around BTC price action in the market.
Bitcoin Network Sees Uptick In Cash Flow
As per the Bitcoin network flows, analyst Willy Woo mentioned in a tweet that the chart displays initial signs of network flow picking up.
When zooming in on the BTC network flows chart, it reveals a resurgence in net flows from US spot ETFs following a decrease (Lighter blue on the chart represents net flows from US spot ETFs). In his tweet, he also stated that it requires another week to officially verify this change in trend.
Another verified profile, Crypto Signals, commented on Woo’s post, that there are developments happening following the initial signs.
Early signs, if I squint *just right*, that flows into the #Bitcoin network are picking up again. Probably needs another week to confirm this trend reversal properly.
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) May 9, 2024
Lighter blue is the net flows from US Spot ETFs. pic.twitter.com/MNau2edkeo
Tweet By Willy Woo | By X Platform
Willy Woo suggested checking out the net flow charts of US spot ETFs, as they could provide valuable insights into potential future price trends.
When BTC Could Peak
In Rekt Capital’s recent tweet on X, he suggests that during the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin reached its highest point 518 days after the Halving event. Following that, as an extension of the pricing pattern seen during the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin reached its highest point 546 days post the Halving event.
He pointed out a potential situation in the price action if history repeats itself and the next Bull Market peak happens 518-546 days after the Halving. This implies that Bitcoin may reach its highest point during the current cycle in either September or October 2025.
#BTC
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 8, 2024
In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving
In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving
If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…
That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle… pic.twitter.com/rCgmxdDA3D
Tweet By Rektcapital | By X Platform
The tweet also indicated that Bitcoin is currently moving faster in this cycle by around 210 days. The longer Bitcoin consolidates post-Halving, the more beneficial it will be for aligning the current cycle with the traditional Halving cycle.
Good Old Technical Analysis Of BTC
As of now, the BTC traded at $61040.7 with a 0.84% drop.
The price of Bitcoin continues to slowly move, resembling a descending wedge pattern instead of consolidation, possibly leading to a 20% increase once it breaks out successfully. Nevertheless, according to the momentum indicators, there is a possibility of further decline before BTC completes the bullish reversal formation.
The RSI has been consistently decreasing since roughly mid-March, suggesting more potential for a negative trend. These indicate that the decreasing trend could continue in the short run.
Therefore, the price of Bitcoin may drop further to the $60,000 support level or below, presenting another chance to buy in the $55,000 range.
BTC Price Outlook | By TradingView
However, in case the $60,000 mark keeps acting as a support, there is a possibility for Bitcoin’s price to rebound before surpassing the upper trendline of the pattern. With a very optimistic scenario, if Bitcoin closes a candlestick above $65,550, it may rise to reclaim the $73,777 high, leading to a potential 20% increase towards the profit target within the falling wedge, aiming for $76,000 and $79,000.
Summary
Bitcoin’s price has decreased since March 14th within a tight range, with a bullish trend dominating the market. The volatility of BTC has decreased, indicating stability and less worry about uncertainties. Moreover, the fear and greed index is at 55, showing rising investor greed and a positive outlook on BTC.
Bitcoin is currently moving faster in this cycle by around 210 days, and a longer consolidation period post-halving could align it with the traditional cycle. As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $61,040.7 with a slight decrease.
Despite a descending wedge pattern indicating a potential 20% increase upon breakout, momentum indicators suggest a possible further decline before a bullish reversal. It may drop to $60,000 before a rebound, possibly reaching $79,000 in an optimistic scenario.
Disclaimer
In this article, the views, and opinions stated by the author, or any people named are for informational purposes only, and they don’t establish the investment, financial, or any other advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrency assets comes with a risk of financial loss.
Nancy J. Allen is a crypto enthusiast, with a major in macroeconomics and minor in business statistics. She believes that cryptocurrencies inspire people to be their own banks, and step aside from traditional monetary exchange systems. She is also intrigued by blockchain technology and its functioning. She frequently researches, and posts content on the top altcoins, their theoretical working principles and technical price predictions.
