Bitcoin has consistently displayed a captivating 4-year cycle since 2015, characterized by three distinct phases. The phases include accumulation, markup, and distribution, followed by a year-long bear market.
This fractal pattern has remarkably pinpointed the highs and lows of each cycle with precision.
According to this cycle theory, Bitcoin is projected to hit its peak between October 12-16, 2025, about 11 months from now, and then find its next bottom between October 4-14, 2026.
Currently, we are in the midst of an uptrend phase, indicating several months of potential growth ahead.
This pattern of cyclical repetition highlights Bitcoin’s resilience and predictability in a notoriously volatile market.
Fractal analysis, a method well-regarded in academia and applied across financial markets, finds a compelling application in Bitcoin, showcasing the digital asset’s rhythmic nature.
Investors and enthusiasts are watching closely. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could see significant rallies in the upcoming 11 months, underscoring the potential for substantial gains in this period of growth and accumulation.
BTC CME close
Bitcoin’s trading pattern around the CME futures close and open last Friday demonstrated typical market behavior.
Before the CME close, Bitcoin challenged a resistance level highlighted in red, showing increased trading volume and volatility.
Once the market paused at the CME close, Bitcoin’s price slightly dropped, a common occurrence as traders recalibrate their strategies based on the day’s closing data.
Upon reopening, Bitcoin tried to rally, indicating traders’ reactions to developments or news that emerged after the close.
This action emphasized on the typical adjustments seen in crypto markets around institutional trading schedules despite their round-the-clock nature.
Interestingly, the weekend followed with minimal fluctuations, maintaining the consolidation pattern below the close price.
This observation suggested that while institutional activities dictate some movements, the 24/7 nature of crypto markets smooths out extreme volatilities as the new week begins, potentially without significant gaps as seen in past trends.
Cumulative Volume Delta Trends
Bitcoin‘s market behavior continued to show consistent pattern of consolidation around the $90,500 mark, characterized by multiple pullbacks and subsequent recoveries.
The overall trend suggests that sellers are exerting some control, but there remains significant activity from buyers that is keeping the market dynamic.
Focusing on the spot delta trends across different exchanges, we observe notable differences where Binance has demonstrated significant buying activity, suggesting strong investor accumulation and support for higher prices on this platform.
Bitfinex, in contrast, exhibited persistent selling pressure, reflecting a bearish sentiment among its user base.
Coinbase, however, has shown considerable buying activity, which has been crucial in stabilizing prices after the market has experienced pullbacks.
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for these exchanges further highlighted the prevailing market conditions where the overall spot CVD shows a downward trend, indicating that there is net selling across the market, despite pockets of strong buying.
Binance’s CVD was positive, which aligned with the observed accumulation on the platform. Bitfinex’s CVD remainED strongly negative, signaling continuous selling pressure.
Similarly, Coinbase’s CVD is negative, suggesting that sellers are still quite active, although the buying periods do offer some balance.
Buyer Support Bitcoin Rise
This detailed analysis shows that while there is support from buyers on platforms like Binance and Coinbase, the general market sentiment remains cautious due to the selling pressure from Bitfinex and the broader negative CVD trends.
The futures market also maintains a bearish outlook, which adds resistance to any significant upward movement.
Overall, the market is in a state of flux, with buying strength on certain exchanges buffering against broader selling pressures, signaling a period of ongoing consolidation with potential for either movement depending on broader market influences.
