Binance’s Sonala (SOL) balance between August 2024 and March 2025 and was extremely characteristic of an accumulation pattern.
It was highest in August 2024, and dropped progressively from December 2024, to the low in early January 2025.
The fall fits the narrative that Binance offloaded Solana to create a price valley.
Starting from January 2025, the balance turned strongly to the positive side, rising sharply by March 2025.
This was a bullish accumulation signal since Binance was accumulating SOL again.
This was a good indication for SOL, as the price increases prior to Binance accumulation mean that such accumulation can drive SOL to new highs if there is a continuation of the trend.
The breakdown pattern on the January 2025 high was also a sign of reversal from distribution to accumulation, in favor of a rise in Solana’s price.
If the balance started falling again, though, it would indicate fresh selling pressure.
This is what will drive Solana price lower again and confirm a bearish trend once more.
The existing trend is beneficial to buyers who bought the low, but sellers of the low can end up losing money when the market reverses.
Solana Price Potential Bounce Zone
The SOL/USD showed the movement of the price of Solana with the critical level of support at $100, “Weekly Demand.”
The price had come down from its new top price of $220 in 2024 to $100 during the early parts of 2025 and established an “unswept low” setup.
$127.59 is a bounce at the level of support as well as March 2025’s trend. The support around $100 must be a level of bounce should it be probed again.
This would predict a rebound to $180 or higher if the support price of $100 is breached, which would be a bullish structure break above $127.59.
But a surprise last-hour shakeout below $100 can thin out the weak hands and drive the price down as low as $80 before any real bounce-back.
The “unswept low” at $100 signals a test; defense on the upside will initiate recovery, but below $100 will extend the downtrend and breach lower supports.
The pattern would hold firm at $100; further bounce would confirm bullish momentum, while breakdown would delay recovery until a better shakeout.
Crowd vs Smart Money Sentiment
Furthermore, SOL’s crowd sentiment was 0.34 (bullish, slightly positive) and Smart Money sentiment was -0.58 (bearish, moderately negative), a difference of 0.92 points.
The crowd’s optimism showed retail buying, maybe pushing SOL’s price higher fueled by FOMO.
Smart Money’s bearishness, however, showed institutional selling or positioning for a fall, probably at $100 support.
Now, this divergence could create volatility, with retail pushing prices up and Smart Money capping gains.
In the next few days, if Smart Money sentiment falls further (e.g., -1), Solana price could go down to $100.
If bullishness in the crowd subsides (e.g., below 0), a correction could accelerate. Sudden market action could turn these around very quickly.
