Bitcoin price action saw upside recently. It was trading above $103,000, with long-term holders in a profitable position once again.
Realized prices for the UTXOs of this group have moved back to around $98,000. Historically, it indicates the middle-term average purchase price and ends up acting as a solid price area.
When this type of security moves into profit, it often reflects that the market is in a good mood. Although prices might appear close to $98,000 again, this area is now believed to be a major support. If Bitcoin price bounces from here, it could support the bullish trend and give rise to further increases.
Traders Show Recovery in Profit Margins
Short-term trader behavior also supports a positive outlook. Those holding Bitcoin for 1 to 3 months have seen their profit/loss margins recover from -19% to +21% within the past month. According to recent data, the 30-day moving average of this metric has also moved up to +9%, showing a clear shift in market sentiment among active traders.
The current realized price for this group is now stabilizing near $84,600, suggesting higher buying activity during previous dips. Analysts note that profit-taking may increase if the 30-day average moves closer to 40%, which is considered an overheated zone. However, with current levels well below that mark, the market appears to be in a healthier stage of recovery.
Market Structure Signals Bitcoin Price Breakout Potential
Technical traders are tracking behaviors in the market that may result in a significant move. An analyst noted that the situation now is a “converging triangle with less volume,” which usually happens before a major shift.
Others believe that an “intraday diamond pattern breakout” indicates the market’s momentum is increasing. Coinbase’s spot prices are often higher than competitors’ which indicates a higher demand for it from buyers inside the US.
According to Coinglass, open interest in futures has increased by 1.61%, to $67.17 billion, despite the overall trading volume falling by nearly 32%. As a result, traders are trying to stay in their positions while trading activity has decreased overall.
The volatility in the options markets is different. Currently, the volume is $906.84 million which is 60% less than last year. While the options market remains active, speculation has dropped and investors are still focused on long-term positions.
Resistance Levels and Short-Term Pullback Possibilities
Despite these positive signs, some players are still a bit apprehensive. Bitcoin has not surpassed the main resistance, so some investors anticipate it returning to $90,000. An analyst from the Paris-based market review company said,
“Slow week and Bitcoin hasn’t been able to break resistance so far, which still makes me think that this scenario might be possibly in play.”
This view reflects the possibility that BTC/USD may revisit lower levels before resuming upward momentum.
When looking at how Bitcoin has done against traditional performance markers, it has not yet managed to break through certain ceilings. Apparently, a few market players are holding back until there is further evidence before adding to their long positions.
Still, many short-term traders are feeling hopeful. One prediction placed the next early-week target for BTC/USD at $116,000. As per Alan, this projection is made using current data and the fact that selling has not increased during the last phases of quiet trading.
As of press time, Bitcoin price was priced at $104,435.40 and the 24-hour trading volume was $35.01 billion. The price was up by 1.90% in the last 24 hours, and 0.5% up than it was a week ago. Trading activity on all exchanges was $61.76 billion, down by 31.89% compared to the previous level.
