Cardano price has been struggling to push past $0.74. In the last 7 days, it has dropped by over 7%, and in the past 24 hours, ADA has slipped even further.
Even though Cardano is still up 118% over the last 3 months, the short-term trend now looks weak.
Traders and on-chain data are showing signs that buyers are backing off. If this continues, the next move could be a sharp drop, maybe even 25%, as the market turns more cautious.
Let’s break down what’s really happening with ADA right now.
Spot Outflows Are Slowing Down, That’s a Red Flag
Normally, when tokens flow out of exchanges (called outflows), it’s a bullish signal. It usually means people are moving coins to wallets for long-term holding, not selling.
But for Cardano, while there are still more outflows than inflows (net outflow of $5.24 million as of August 4), the intensity of these outflows has been shrinking. This means the buying pressure is fading.
In simple terms, people were taking ADA off exchanges to hold, but now fewer people are doing that.
That opens the door for inflows to take over again. If inflows increase, it could mean more people are planning to sell. That usually leads to price drops.
At the same time, over 53% of traders are shorting ADA, according to Binance data. The long/short ratio has dropped to just 0.86.
A lower ratio means more traders are betting the price will go down than up. That makes it clear; sentiment is turning more bearish.
Momentum Indicators Flash Bearish Reversal
The MACD, or Moving Average Convergence Divergence, is showing signs of a bearish trend. The histogram is deep in the red, and the MACD line is diverging away from the signal line.
When this happens, it means the downward momentum is getting stronger.
There’s also no crossover in sight; no early sign of a reversal. And that supports what we’re seeing on the other charts.
On top of that, the OBV (On-Balance Volume), which tracks the volume behind price moves, has flattened.
That means traders aren’t buying ADA in large amounts, even when it tries to recover. Weak volume and falling price? That’s usually a bad mix for bulls.
Price Chart Shows Lower Highs and Fibonacci Resistance
The Cardano price is now below $0.7446, which is the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from the July rally. That’s a key line, and failing to reclaim it shows weakness.
On the daily chart, ADA is also stuck close to the key support of $0.68. Every bounce is getting smaller; this is called a series of “lower highs.”
This pattern suggests sellers are still in control. As of now, ADA is trading around $0.713. If the price keeps dropping, the next support sits near $0.684.
But the real risk comes if $0.684 breaks. In that case, the Cardano price could drop as low as $0.536, which would be a 25% fall from current levels.
However, if the ADA price manages to push past $.81, the short-term bearish trend might break. But that’s not all! Also, Cardano’s overall performance is starting to look weak when compared to newer chains.
In the latest 30-day performance data, Cardano’s DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) and active user counts are down over 8%.
Meanwhile, rivals like Berachain and Core are gaining ground fast. If this keeps up, ADA could even drop out of the top 20.
Cardano price is under clear pressure. There’s less buying activity, more traders betting against it, and indicators like MACD and OBV are showing weakness.
Unless buyers step up soon, the ADA price might fall as much as 25%, with $0.53 as a potential downside target.
