Key Insights:
- Amid the XRP price dip, SOPR below 1.0 shows most Ripple coin holders now realize losses, confirming rising sell-side pressure.
- Losses concentrate among recent buyers as long-term holders remain mostly profitable.
- Repeated sell-offs near $2.0 highlight structural fragility and psychological resistance.
The XRP price has entered a high-risk zone as on-chain indicators show a growing share of holders selling at a loss. Data from Glassnode indicates a deterioration in profitability following XRP’s retreat from recent highs.
The shift shows mounting pressure on newer market participants and a fragile market structure shaped by elevated cost bases.
Glassnode’s Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, tracked using a 30-day exponential moving average, has fallen below the neutral 1.0 threshold.
This move indicates that most XRP spent on-chain is now realizing losses rather than profits. The decline marks a clear break from earlier periods dominated by profit-taking.
SOPR dropped from 1.16 in July 2025 to roughly 0.96 at present. The move coincided with XRP price losing its aggregate holder cost basis. As prices weakened, selling behavior grew cautious, with investors absorbing losses rather than securing gains.
XRP Price Weakness Reflected in SOPR Breakdown
The XRP price pullback has closely aligned with the breakdown in SOPR. Historically, extended moves below 1.0 have coincided with heightened selling pressure and stressed market conditions.
Glassnode data shows a similar pattern during the September 2021 to May 2022 period, when SOPR remained below neutral for months.
With the recent cycle, SOPR sank into loss territory as the XRP price fell back to new lows. The shift depicts capitulation of short- to mid-term holders who piled up at high levels.
The data also indicates that earlier recoveries in the SOPR were closely matched by fresh upward price momentum.
On-chain indicators remain under pressure until SOPR regains values above 1.0 on a long-term basis. The present activity depicts losses prevailing over realized flows, rather than profit-taking.
Glassnode further reports that the XRP price is currently at $1.48, the realized price. According to analysts, the current market setup is quite similar to that observed in April 2022 and February 2022, when Ripple coin traded below major cost bases for prolonged periods.
Ripple Coin Holder Cost Basis Divergence Widens
Data on realized prices by holding age reveal an increasing gap between long-term holders and new buyers. According to a cohort-based analysis by Glassnode, Ripple coins held for more than 6 months have much lower realized prices. These holders are still highly profitable as of late.
In comparison, investors trading in the one-week to one-month space will have realized prices that will be close or higher than the current spot prices.
This stance increases susceptibility to downside as the XRP price weakens. The statistics show that the pressure remains concentrated among new entrants rather than long-term players.
Following the rally in late 2024, realized prices for younger cohorts rose quickly. As momentum faded, these cohorts became exposed to losses. This transition aligns with the recent surge in on-chain loss realization.
XRP Price: Psychological Resistance Shapes Selling Behavior
Glassnode data shows that XRP holders have an important psychological level at $2.0. Every such retest has been accompanied by actual losses amounting to $0.5 billion to $1.2 billion per week since the beginning of 2025 for XRP.
On November 28, Glassnode stated that the portion of the Ripple coin supply in profit dropped to 58.5%. This was the lowest point since November 2024, when XRP price was trading around $0.53.
