Key Insights:
- Robinhood stock price jumped 7% on bullish divergence despite a 40% crypto revenue crash.
- Cathie Wood bought $46 million, but Money Flow shows no institutional accumulation.
- Descending channel breakdown targets $40.57, representing a 43% drop from current levels.
Robinhood stock price jumped 7% on Feb. 13, reaching $75.97. The rally came after a bullish divergence formed between Feb. 5 and Feb. 12. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought $46 million worth, possibly trying to catch the bottom.
But the stock still trades trapped inside a descending channel where a breakdown triggers a 43% drop to $40.
Robinhood Stock Price Surges 7% After Bullish Divergence
Q4 2025 earnings reported Feb. 10 showed crypto transaction revenue plunged 40% to $221 million. This was the biggest drag on results amid broader crypto market weakness. Bitcoin and altcoin prices fell sharply from 2025 highs. Trading volumes collapsed. Robinhood’s crypto-linked revenue followed the same path down.
But other parts of the business performed well. Platform assets grew 68% year over year, reaching $324 billion. The company beat EPS estimates at $0.66 versus the $0.63 consensus. Robinhood Gold subscribers increased 58% to 4.2 million members. Margin book hit a record $16.8 billion, up 113% from the prior year. Other revenues jumped 109% to $96 million.
The diversification story is working. Crypto used to dominate revenue. Now, subscriptions, margin lending, and other products contribute meaningful income. Management emphasized this shift during the earnings call. The goal is to reduce reliance on volatile crypto trading fees.
Robinhood stock price formed a bullish divergence between Feb. 5 and Feb. 12. Price made a lower low during this period. RSI made a higher low at the same time.
This pattern signals weakening downside momentum. Buyers started stepping in even though the price kept falling. The 7% jump on Feb. 13 confirmed the divergence signal worked.
Cathie Wood Buys $46M as Money Flow Stays Weak
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest accumulated approximately $46 million worth of HOOD stock across multiple buying sessions. The largest single purchase was $33.9 million for 433,806 shares. Additional follow-up buys totaled $12.4 million. ARK now holds around $248 million in total exposure, making it a significant position.
Wood has a history of buying fintech and crypto-exposed stocks during selloffs. She views weakness as an opportunity to add at lower prices. The aggressive accumulation during the Robinhood stock price decline fits her pattern. ARK typically holds positions for years, betting on long-term disruption themes.
But Chaikin Money Flow tells a different story. The indicator stands at -0.14, indicating net outflows. CMF trending negative, while Robinhood’s stock price declined, means large institutions are not accumulating alongside Wood. Her buying represents outlier activity rather than broad smart money support.
CMF tracks the relationship between price and volume. Rising CMF during falling prices would indicate hidden buying pressure. That would suggest accumulation is happening quietly. Instead, CMF is falling with price. This confirms that selling pressure remains dominant. Wood is buying, but she appears to be unsupported by the broader market.
Descending Channel Signals 43% Downside Risk
Robinhood stock price trades within a descending channel pattern. The stock has been making lower highs and lower lows since early 2026. The channel walls act as resistance above and support below. Breaking either direction triggers measured moves.
Current support sits at $71.91. This is the lower boundary of the channel. A breakdown below this level opens the door to $55.64 as the first target. Further weakness leads to $40.57, which represents the full measured move of the channel pattern. That would be an additional 43% drop from current levels.
The alternative scenario requires breaking above the $87.81 resistance. Escaping above it would weaken the bearish structure. The stock would then have room to run toward previous highs. But that requires sustained buying pressure, which has not yet appeared.
The next 24 hours matter because the Robinhood stock price sits just below a critical decision point. The recent 7% bounce brought it near channel resistance. A daily close above resistance confirms the breakout. Failure to break through sends the stock back toward channel support, where the $40 risk becomes real again.
