Key Insights:
- The Bitcoin price could fall toward $59,000, Wintermute’s trading desk says.
- On-chain data shows long-term holders have sharply slowed their selling.
Bitcoin is moving toward a level that is considered a bear market low by one of crypto’s largest trading desks. On the other hand, the data underlying the price tell a completely different story.
According to Wintermute’s OTC trading desk note shared with CoinDesk on June 24, Bitcoin and Ether are sliding toward the lower end of their recent trading ranges. The desk’s options pricing gives Bitcoin a $61,242 to $63,563 range (1.9%) and Ethereum a $1,606 to $1,694 range (2.7%) for the next 24 hours. Wintermute also quoted $59,000 as the key level to watch if current pressure continues, signaling it as the bear market low.
Why Bitcoin Price Keeps Sliding
The pressure is showing up across markets. Bitcoin fell more than 2% on Tuesday, confirming a bear flag breakdown. It signals that the broader decline might resume. By Wednesday, Bitcoin traded at around $62,546, down about 4.5% from its weekly high.
Currency markets were sending similar signals as the U.S. dollar index climbed to 101.57, its highest level since May 2025. That pattern where investors prefer to park capital in the dollar while selling higher-yielding currencies. Bitcoin has no yield mechanism, the way government bonds do. Therefore, it is also facing pressure in the broader sell-off.
A second-day loss in chip and technology stocks increased the pressure. According to CoinDesk, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of more than $6 billion within a 30-day period. It looks like an institutional-level sell-off as the market approaches options expiry, with most positions out of the money.
Catalysts That Might Influence Bitcoin Price
Wintermute’s note mentioned three events that might decide the price movement of Bitcoin for the rest of the week. First is the U.S-Iran peace deal update. Second is inflation data, which may matter more given the Fed’s latest hawkish stance.
The third is the quarterly option expiry. It might trigger sharp price moves as traders roll over or square off their large positions on expiries.
Wintermute also raised concerns over the rising correlation among digital assets. When tokens move together in the same direction but not because of their fundamentals, it becomes harder to analyze the price action of any single asset.
What the On-Chain Data Shows Instead
While Wintermute’s desk expects further downside, on-chain and derivatives data suggest that bearish momentum may be weakening.
According to on-chain analyst Darkfost’s analysis of Spent Transaction Output (STO) data, published by BeInCrypto on June 23, long-term Bitcoin holders have sharply slowed their selling. Their 90-day average selling fell to 962 BTC. That’s the lowest since November 2024, and well below the peaks of 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025, and 2,360 BTC in September 2025. Darkfost wrote, “At current prices, these investors are choosing to continue holding rather than sell, thereby contributing to the easing of selling pressure.”
The derivatives market is also showing the same pattern. CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu found that total Bitcoin open interest dropped from $25.96 billion on June 1 to $20.89 billion on June 21. That’s an almost 20% fall, along with a 11.4% price decline.
This pattern normally suggests that traders are closing leveraged positions instead of opening new ones. “This does not guarantee an immediate rebound, but it does indicate a healthier market structure than a highly crowded derivatives market,” Woominkyu wrote, in BeInCrypto’s reporting.
According to SoSoValue data, weekly spot Bitcoin ETF outflows fell sharply throughout June. Early-month outflows accounted for around $1.72 billion, $315.84 million by June 12, and slid further to $226.84 million for the week ending June 18.
That’s still six consecutive weeks of net outflows, but the pace has slowed down as Bitcoin’s price declined.
Reading the Two Signals
The market is sending two different signals depending on where you look. Wintermute’s theory signals how BTC price may react over the next 48 hours, influenced by macro events like the Fed’s inflation data and ongoing peace talks. At the same time, on-chain and derivatives data signal a slowing selling trend. The investors and leveraged traders who triggered the recent selling pressure have begun to back off.
For now, the direction of Bitcoin’s price depends more on macro-level catalysts than on developments within crypto markets. Whether the mentioned support level of $59,000 holds or the slowing selling pressure indicated by on-chain data builds a price floor should become clearer after Thursday’s inflation data and this week’s geopolitical updates.
Both the signals might be true. Markets can show short-term weakness while being stable in the long term. What matters most here is that no single on-chain data point can predict future prices. As BeInCrypto’s own reporting noted, a stable recovery still requires ETF inflows and improved broader macroeconomic conditions, and neither has happened yet.
