Key Insights:
- Analysts say early Bitcoin (BTC) price bottoming signs are appearing, but the market reset may not be complete.
- BTC price could revisit the June high near $67,000 before any larger decline later this year.
- A close below the 200-week SMA has shifted focus to support at $57,900 and $53,200.
Bitcoin price is sitting at an important level after fresh on-chain data, and chart signals point to possible early bottoming signs. Analysts say selling pressure may be easing, but key support levels still need to hold before the market can show a stronger recovery.
The Bitcoin Price Bottoming Signs To Watch
Bitcoin price is showing one of its first signs that the market may be going through a deeper clean-up, according to on-chain analyst MorenoDV. Even so, the analyst believes it is still too early to say the market has reached its final bottom.
MorenoDV based the view on the Bitcoin UTXO Block Profit and Loss Count Ratio Model. The model compares how many UTXO blocks are still in profit with those already sitting at a loss. It gives a picture of how much profit remains across the market below the current price.
A high reading means most holders are still making money. That often leaves room for more selling because many investors can still take profits.
A lower Bitcoin (BTC) price reading shows that more holders have moved into losses. That usually happens after the market has already gone through heavy selling.
The latest reading has dropped into an area that has appeared during previous bottoming periods. MorenoDV said that is an important development, but it does not mean the bottom has already formed.
The analyst explained that the 365-day moving average still needs to fall much further before a stronger bottom signal can be confirmed. Until then, the market may only be seeing a short-term oversold condition instead of a full reset.
MorenoDV also said brief rallies can still happen if traders holding short positions are forced to close them. However, those moves should not be treated as proof that the market has fully recovered. A stronger signal would come if the profit and loss ratio started improving over a longer period.
What is the BTC Price Ideal Range-Bound Scenario?
Another market viewpoint points to a possible Bitcoin price rise before any fresh weakness appears later this year. Crypto trader Honey noted that BTC price has already swept the June low around $59,000. The next level to watch is the June high near $67,000.
According to Honey, the best range-bound outcome would see the market trade higher during the next four to six weeks before reaching those June highs. If that happens, the price would complete a move from one end of the current range to the other before any larger decline in the fourth quarter.
This outlook does not suggest that a new bull run has started. Instead, it points to the BTC price moving inside a defined range while traders wait for the next major direction.
For now, many traders will be watching whether buyers have enough strength to push the market back toward the June highs.
Bitcoin Price 200w SMA Analysis
Chart analyst Nic Puckrin pointed to another important signal that traders are watching closely. He said Bitcoin price has closed below its 200-week simple moving average for the first time in more than three years.
It is also the first break below that level during the current market cycle. The 200-week moving average has acted as an important support level in past bear markets.
Losing that level could increase attention on lower price zones. Puckrin said the next Bitcoin price support sits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around $57,900. If sellers push that area below, the next BTC level to watch is the on-chain realized price near $53,200.
Taken together, the latest on-chain data and long-term chart signals show that the market is still under pressure. Some signs suggest the selling may be slowing, while others show that important support levels are being tested.
The next few weeks could give traders a better idea of whether the Bitcoin price is building a base or preparing for another move lower.
 price is showing early bottoming signs as analysts watch the 200-week SMA, $67,000 resistance, and support at $57,900.){kind=link}