Key Insights:
- Bitcoin options worth $1.9 billion expired as traders watched for the market’s next move.
- A key Bitcoin buy signal has returned for the first time since November 2022.
- Analysts are watching whether price strength can support the latest market signal.
Bitcoin options expiry is back in focus after 31,000 BTC contracts worth $1.9 billion expired on July 3. At the same time, market data showed the first buy signal since November 2022. That gave traders fresh reasons to watch the next move in the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin Options Expiry Puts Focus on Price Direction
Bitcoin options expiry became one of the biggest market events on July 3 after 31,000 BTC options expired with a notional value of $1.9 billion. The contracts had a put-call ratio of 0.7 and a maximum pain point of $61,000.
Ethereum also recorded a large expiry, with 135,000 ETH options worth $230 million, a put-call ratio of 1.29, and a maximum pain point of $1,650.
While traders watched the expiry, many also paid attention to another market signal that appeared around the same time. Data showed that a market indicator moved out of deeply negative territory and crossed above its signal level. That change printed a buy signal during several trading sessions in late June and early July.
This was the first time the indicator had flashed a buy signal since November 2022. That earlier signal came near the end of the last bear market and was followed by a long recovery.
Since the latest signal appeared, the indicator has moved back to the zero line. Bitcoin has also pulled back from recent highs, trading around the $61,000 level.
The signal alone does not confirm that a new rally has started. Traders will be looking to see whether the indicator stays above zero while the price begins to rise again. If both happen together, confidence could improve. A move back below zero without buyer support would weaken that view.
Bitcoin Buy Signal Returns After More Than Two Years
Besides the Bitcoin options update, another chart tells a different story about the market. The Bitcoin Supply in Loss chart measures how much of the total Bitcoin supply is now worth less than the price holders paid for it.
Its fast 30-day moving average has already climbed above the 50% mark. That means more than half of the supply is now sitting at a loss based on recent prices. The slower 90-day moving average remains below that level, in the 40% range. Since it reacts more slowly, it takes longer to reflect changes across the market.
The gap between the two averages suggests that selling pressure increased quickly rather than over a long period. If current conditions remain unchanged, the slower average could reach the 50% mark in about 7 to 8 weeks. Until then, the data suggest the market is still working through this period rather than reaching a final bottom.
Looking at both indicators together, one points to a possible change in direction while the other shows that many holders are still under pressure.
Technical Progress Still Needs Time
In other Bitcoin news, the market discussion has not been limited to charts alone. Bitcoin educator Stephan Livera said that technical progress usually precedes social change.
Livera believes Bitcoin already has many useful features, including a fixed supply of 21 million coins, fast transfers, self-custody, and the ability to send money without asking for permission.
Even with those strengths, he said, people usually take time to change old financial habits. He also said the current financial and political system creates barriers that slow wider use. Livera believes Bitcoin can still become global money, but he expects that process to take many years.
For now, traders are watching price action closely after the latest buy signal appeared for the first time since November 2022. The next few weeks could show whether buyers can build on that signal or whether the market needs more time before a stronger recovery begins.
