Key Insights
- Bitcoin recovered after Strategy’s sale concern faded.
- Offshore leverage drove the rebound more than spot demand.
- Weak U.S. demand kept the rally exposed.
Bitcoin price prediction shifted after Bitcoin recovered from the selloff to $61,300. The rebound followed Strategy’s Bitcoin sale announcement, which initially hurt trader sentiment. The move also showed that bulls had not secured full market control.
The broader Bitcoin price prediction now depends on market structure, not only recovery speed. Strategy’s added $216 million cash position eased dividend and debt concerns. However, derivatives data suggested traders still treated the rebound as fragile.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Faces Leverage Test
Laevitas data showed Bitcoin perpetual futures funding reached 9% on Monday. That move reflected balanced demand between long and short leverage. It also marked a clear break from Saturday’s negative funding backdrop.
The shift did not show strong bullish conviction. Futures traders reduced bearish exposure, but they did not chase upside with force. That reaction explained why the rebound carried caution rather than confidence.
Deribit options data showed put premiums exceeded call premiums early this week. The put-to-call reading moved to 1.15, which stayed below stress levels. Still, the reversal showed that options traders paid more for downside protection.
Bitcoin later bounced to $63,500, but derivatives traders stayed restrained. That response mattered because leverage often turns unstable near resistance. A recovery without broad spot support can quickly lose strength.
CryptoQuant data showed a sharper split beneath the move. Binance funding rates rose 860% above their baseline during the recent rebound. At the same time, the Coinbase Premium Index stayed negative across the period.
That gap suggested offshore derivatives traders carried most of the momentum. Coinbase premium often reflects U.S. spot demand from institutions and large buyers. Its weakness raised doubts about the quality of the recovery.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Hinges On ETF Reversal
SoSoValue records showed U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $223 million on Friday. The inflow ended 10 straight outflow days and slowed the bearish narrative. It also gave bulls one clear spot-market argument.
The reversal followed a June drawdown that damaged trader confidence. Spot Bitcoin funds recorded $4.51 billion in net outflows during that month. Those withdrawals forced traders to question demand from regulated investment channels.
The ETF rebound helped calm the market, but one session did not reset sentiment. Traders usually require a sequence of inflows before positioning turns durable. That caution kept the Bitcoin price prediction tied to fund-flow confirmation.
Strategy’s preferred perpetual equity Stretch also added pressure. TradingView data showed the instrument offered a 12% yield while trading below its issuance logic. New shares can only come at $100, which limits funding flexibility.
That constraint mattered because the product helped support dividend obligations. Strategy held enough cash to cover 17 months of payouts. Still, traders viewed future Bitcoin sales as a risk while the equity instrument stayed weak.
The company’s balance sheet remained central to market psychology. Its debt leverage stood near 8%, which did not imply immediate distress. Yet unrealized Bitcoin losses reached $8 billion, keeping bears engaged.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Watches Holder Conviction
Glassnode data showed long-term holder transfers to exchanges fell to 4,130 Bitcoin per day. That reading came after an earlier pace of 8,040 Bitcoin. The decline pointed to reduced selling pressure from older wallets.
That shift supported the case for stronger support near the recent lows. Long-term holders often influence deeper market structure during drawdowns. Their lower exchange activity suggested forced selling had started to fade.
Still, on-chain activity did not fully confirm a clean breakout. CryptoQuant’s NVT Golden Cross fell 579% versus its baseline. That decline suggested network transaction value lagged behind market capitalization growth.
This structure weakened the bullish argument. Price moved higher while network use stayed quiet. In such conditions, leverage can stretch the market beyond organic demand.
The Coinbase Premium remained the cleanest risk signal. If it turned neutral, U.S. spot buyers would confirm stronger participation. Until then, offshore leverage could remain the main driver.
Bitcoin price prediction now points to a fragile test of $65,000. Bulls require follow-through from spot exchange-traded funds and stronger Coinbase demand. Without that support, overleveraged longs may face a sharp reset.
