Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price holds near $77,255 ahead of Wednesday’s Fed rate-hike decision.
- August core CPI lifts September hike pricing from 70% toward 90%.
- Weekly EMA resistance and a falling wedge support frame Bitcoin’s technical range.
Bitcoin price holds near $77,255.91 as traders assess Wednesday’s Fed rate hike decision and a bearish weekly close. CoinGecko shows BTC price down 0.1%, within a $76,515.84–$77,377.37 daily range.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $1.552 trillion, while volume totals $16.024 billion. It has lost 3% weekly and 2.1% over 14 days.
However, Bitcoin price is up 23.2% monthly, while its one-year return is down 33.4%. This recent pressure on BTC price coincides with rising expectations for higher U.S. borrowing costs.
Bitcoin Price Tests Two Technical Structures
Given that performance, Rekt Capital sees BTC price risking a weekly close below its 50-week exponential moving average. He says the signal needs confirmation through a later rejection that converts the average into resistance.
His comparison points to Bitcoin’s earlier test of the 21-week EMA, which initially operated as support. Price later lost that average, dropping from the mid-$70,000s to the low-$60,000s.
Rekt Capital says both averages typically support Bitcoin during established bull markets. He views sustained failures at both measures as evidence that a full bull cycle has not started.
Meanwhile, The Cryptomist tracks Bitcoin price on a shorter four-hour chart after BTC broke above a falling wedge. BTC price now retests the wedge boundary between $76,500 and $77,000, with $77,800 marking the first rebound level.
A descending trendline then creates resistance between $79,400 and $80,000. The Cryptomist expects a temporary rise into that barrier before renewed selling. The projected Bitcoin price path targets $75,000, followed by support at $73,500-$74,000.
The analyst links that volatility to CLARITY Act developments, then maps consolidation near $73,500. The chart shows a recovery toward $81,000. However, that level sits below the earlier $82,000 peak displayed on the chart.
Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise After August Inflation
The FOMC meets September 15 and 16, with officials scheduled to release their decision on Wednesday. August core CPI rose 0.3% from July, exceeding the 0.2% forecast. That reading moved September hike odds from 70% toward 90%.
CME FedWatch placed the probability near 87%, showing traders favored a quarter-point increase. Markets assigned a 97% probability to at least one rate increase by year-end. That figure does not represent a 97% probability of a second increase. Instead, futures traders priced at least two 2026 increases by year-end.
The Bitcoin price could face renewed pressure as 10 of 12 FOMC voters backed next week’s quarter-point move, which was described as an emergency action already approved by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
However, the Federal Reserve lists September 15–16 as a regularly scheduled meeting. No official decision appears on the public Fed calendar before Wednesday’s scheduled policy announcement.
Bitcoin Price Faces Rate-Hike Pressure as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs Shift Outlooks
Notably, JPMorgan now expects quarter-point increases in September and December, changing its previous policy outlook. Goldman Sachs also dropped its call for no September change and now projects a 25-basis-point hike. However, Goldman does not treat additional increases as its main forecast after September.
Political pressure is moving in the opposite direction as White House officials continue to support lower borrowing costs. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett urged Warsh to consider the timing near November’s midterm elections.
Hassett said pre-election increases have occurred only a few times since 1913. He also said that avoiding electoral involvement is part of central bank independence.
Nevertheless, Hassett said the White House would support whatever decision the Federal Reserve reaches. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump called for the United States to have the world’s lowest interest rate. Trump said he did not know whether policymakers would raise rates on Wednesday.
He argued that America’s credit strength supports lower borrowing costs, regardless of the Fed’s formulas. Trump selected Warsh while advocating for lower interest rates, but Warsh continues to emphasize controlling inflation.
