Licences expire on 25 October. The law that kills them might die in February.
The Brazil gambling ban is in force, but it is temporary by design. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva issued it as a provisional measure, which works like a law on probation: Congress has 120 days to approve it, or it falls.
Betting sites went offline on 6 October. The vote that decides whether any of that lasts has no date yet. It could come in February, once the Congress elected on 4 October takes office.
What a provisional measure is
Brazil’s constitution lets the president issue a provisional measure (MP) in urgent cases. It is a decree with the force of law: it takes effect on publication, before Congress says anything. MP 1.394 was published on 25 September.
It bans operating, offering, intermediating, and advertising fixed-odds betting, including by operators based abroad, and ends existing authorisations within 30 days.
An MP is valid for 60 days and extends automatically for another 60. Within that time, both chambers must convert it into law.
A joint committee of deputies and senators reviews it first. Congress designated this one on 30 September. As of 6 October, it has not been installed, so it has no president or rapporteur. Lawmakers have filed more than 40 amendments.
Why 120 Days Isn’t 120 Days
The count stops while Congress is in recess, from 23 December to 1 February. About 28 days of the second period pass before the break, and about 32 remain after it, which puts the final deadline in early March 2027.
- 13 October: deadline for amendments.
- 25 October: licences end.
- 9 November: day 45, when an unvoted MP goes into urgency.
- 24 November: first 60 days expire, and the extension begins.
- 23 December to 1 February: recess, clock stopped.
- Early March 2027: final deadline.
The outgoing Congress can vote before 22 December. If it does not, the decision passes to the newly elected one, which takes office on 1 February. A rejection vote in February is possible. So is a measure that simply runs out of time.
Four Possible Endings for the Brazil Gambling Ban
No one can say which will happen. Each follows a different legal path.
- Approved as written. Both chambers convert the MP unchanged. The ban becomes ordinary law, and the licences stay extinguished with no refund, as the measure states.
- Approved with amendments. Congress rewrites parts of the text, and the president can sanction or veto the result. Filed proposals show what is in play: a transition period that lets licensees run until the end of the five-year term they paid for, a refund of fees in proportion to the unused term, and scope, such as keeping sponsorships or allowing sports betting.
- Rejected. Either chamber votes the measure down, and it stops producing effects. Press reports say the earlier betting law, Law 14.790/2023, would then apply again.
- Lapses without a vote. The deadline passes, and nobody has voted. The legal result resembles rejection, but no one has to cast a vote.
The Parallel Track: The Supreme Court
A court can act before Congress does. Several direct actions of unconstitutionality (ADIs) challenge the measure at the Supreme Federal Court (STF). Two come from industry associations: ANSEJA (ADI 8024) and the National Association of Games and Lotteries, ANJL (ADI 8027). A third, ADI 8028, was filed on 29 September by the national mayors’ association ANPV, which cites lost municipal revenue.
Justice Luiz Fux is the rapporteur. On 2 October, he gave the Attorney General’s Office 72 hours to respond to a request to suspend the measure. The same day, in a separate case brought by the Prosecutor General (ADI 7749), the Attorney General’s Office asked the court to declare the core of Laws 13.756/2018 and 14.790/2023 unconstitutional, reversing its earlier position.
Law 14.790/2023 is the framework that press reports say returns if the measure falls. At the time of writing, Fux has not ruled on suspension. He can suspend all or part of it, leave it in force, or take it to the full court. Any of those could come before a single vote in Congress.
Licences End Before Congress Votes
Licences are extinguished on 25 October. Congress settles the measure’s fate months later. If the measure then lapses or is rejected, what happens to licences that already ended and the fees already paid for them?
The Constitution says Congress should regulate those relations by legislative decree within 60 days. Without a decree, relations formed while the measure was in force stay governed by it. How that applies to extinguished licences is a question for Brazilian counsel.
What to Watch in the Coming Months?
International operators track five signals in the Brazil gambling ban:
- The STF ruling: Whether Fux suspends the measure or lets it run, and what he does with the government’s request on the betting laws.
- The rapporteur: Who is chosen when the committee is installed, and how far the text changes.
- The agenda lock: From day 45, about 9 November, an unvoted MP goes into urgency. Once it reaches a chamber, it blocks most other legislative business there until it is voted.
- Any transition period: Whether licensees get time, or 25 October holds.
- Licence fees: Whether the government retains the R$2.55bn paid for 85 licences or issues a partial refund.
For international operators such as the crypto casino Shuffle, the Brazilian case is an indicator. Regulators in neighbouring countries may use the outcome as a reference when they decide how to handle their own markets, and a conversion into law, a transition period, and a court reversal each send a different signal.
