Key insights
- The SpaceX-Tesla merger could be announced in December or slip into early 2027.
- Kalshi’s November 12 market showed 67% odds for a December announcement or a slip into early 2027, with $1.89 million in volume.
- SpaceX and Tesla shares closed higher on November 12; Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas kept a $300 target.
SpaceX-Tesla merger talks have progressed, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the discussions.
They said an announcement could come as early as December, though the companies have also discussed delaying it to early 2027.
SpaceX-Tesla Merger Talks Could Reshape Musk’s Control
Each company has formed a committee to study a possible combination. A formal proposal could follow soon, while the announcement date remains uncertain. Elon Musk leads both companies, whose businesses span electric vehicles, battery packs, rocket launches, satellite internet, and artificial intelligence.
A SpaceX-Tesla merger could give Elon Musk the voting control at Tesla he has said he wants. The report said a deal could provide that control without requiring him to meet milestones in his compensation plan.
That pay plan includes a $1 trillion stock award from last year. Reuters reviewed the package and consulted six executive-compensation experts. Their review found a merger would initially give Elon Musk only a small portion of the award. The experts said SpaceX’s board could restructure his compensation after a deal.
Charles Elson, founding director of the University of Delaware’s Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance, said the package was secondary to the question of control.
Kalshi Odds Rise Alongside Merger Trading
Meanwhile, Kalshi’s Tesla-SpaceX merger market climbed sharply in November after staying lower for much of the year. A November 12 snapshot showed a 67% chance of an announcement before March 1, 2027.
The market showed 58% odds before February 1 and 41% before January 1. Trading volume reached about $1.89 million.
SpaceX stock closed November 12 at $139.94, up 0.14%, or $0.19, from the previous session. The stock reached an intraday high of $147.60, then gave back most of its gains.
It finished near the session low of $137.75 before rising to $140.17 after hours.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas updated the firm’s SpaceX projections and maintained its Overweight rating. He set a $300 price target against a reference price of $140.
Tesla stock also ended higher on November 12, gaining 1.70% to $397.45. The Tesla stock rose $6.63 from its previous close of $390.82.
Shares traded mostly between $389 and $393 before a late surge carried them above $400. Tesla stock then pulled back from the $401.22 high.
Earlier SpaceX Coverage Focused on Anthropic
Separately, SpaceX stock closed lower on November 11 as Musk addressed claims that Anthropic planned to end its computing agreement. Musk disputed expectations that Anthropic would leave. Investors assessed SpaceX’s exposure to large artificial intelligence customers.
SpaceX sells computing capacity alongside rocket launches and satellite services. Its regulatory filings disclosed substantial customer concentration but did not identify Anthropic as the customer.
This article provides financial and market information, not investment advice. Prediction-market probabilities and analyst price targets do not guarantee future events or returns. Any merger remains subject to negotiations, approvals and regulatory review.
