Bitcoin’s current open interest has reached its lowest since BTC was around $59,000, signaling hesitation among retail traders. This decline suggests many traders have chosen to sit on the sidelines.
Historically, significant price moves often occur when interest is low, as cautious investors wait for the next big signal.
As Bitcoin enters a potentially pivotal week with the end of earnings season and U.S. elections just less than two weeks away, some believe BTC’s next direction remains uncertain, though recent trends have leaned upward.
Since early September, Bitcoin has moved within an upward trend, with October forming a large continuation pattern. This consistent movement raised questions among analysts about whether BTC would sustain this climb.
The Natural Course for Bitcoin
Some suggest that the natural course for Bitcoin remains upward, and that the only window for uptrends may appear after elections.
BTC has stayed above its main resistance, forming a pattern that could support its upward momentum if sustained.
Currently, Bitcoin’s breakout above its trendline has held, with no recent daily closes below. Many believe BTC could avoid dropping to lower levels of 50s or even 40s, maintaining a consolidation pattern that many see as a positive sign.
Despite the signs of strength, uncertainties remain. Historically, the U.S. elections have impacted BTC’s performance, often adding short-term pressure.
Given the current low open interest, traders expect volatility as they position themselves for a potential rally. As the elections draw closer, BTC’s trend appears to align with a market preparing for heightened activity.
Some analysts argue this unique setup might allow BTC to correct slightly before recharging for a stronger move. However, they emphasize caution around short positions, as BTC’s long-term pattern remains resilient.
Analysts anticipate that in the next two weeks, BTC will see spikes in volatility, particularly as the U.S. election results unfold. Fake-outs and sharp movements could occur, demanding caution from traders looking to make short-term bets.
MVRV Ratio Rebounded from August Lows
The profitability of new Bitcoin investors has also seen an uptick as the MVRV ratio rebounded from August lows. This ratio, which gauges short-term market value to realized value, hints at a strengthening market trend.
With the short-term holder MVRV surpassing its 90-day moving average, Bitcoin’s market structure appears to be improving. Analysts see this as a likely trigger for investors to hold BTC rather than sell, as profitability remains in the green.
How High Can BTC Go?
If BTC maintains its value above $60,000, many analysts believe it could trigger a parabolic move toward $100,000. This could bring ETH along for the ride, potentially moving it closer to $5,000.
With BTC continuing to hold firm at its current levels, the momentum may stay positive, but near-term fluctuations are likely as the market factors in the election results.
Although the trend remains strong, the coming weeks could see unexpected volatility that traders will need to navigate carefully. Whether Bitcoin’s next move is a rally or a drop, the stage seems set for substantial shifts in the cryptocurrency market.
Although the trend remains strong, the coming weeks could see unexpected volatility that traders will need to navigate carefully. Whether Bitcoin’s next move is a rally or a drop, the stage seems set for substantial shifts in the cryptocurrency market.
