Bitcoin (BTC) price is currently in a consolidation phase after days of consistent downtrend.
Crypto analyst Rob on social media platform X claims Bitcoin may experience an uptrend in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025. The analyst cites a drawdown in the Treasury General Account (TGA) as the key factor in propelling Bitcoin’s price.
Given this forecast and other favorable metrics, market participants now anticipate whether Bitcoin will retest new highs.
Bitcoin and Treasury General Account Relation
Rob states that Bitcoin’s current trend is similar to those witnessed during the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. He, however, explained that this cycle leans towards 2017 rather than 2021, particularly in terms of its relations with the TGA.
The Treasury General Account is the government’s operating account operated by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The government uses this account to collect taxes, customs duties, proceeds from the sale of securities, and public debt receipts while facilitating payments.
The government previously relied on the TGA to meet expenses when the US hit its debt ceiling limits.
When this happens, the country can no longer borrow more from the public to fund its operations. As a result, the government usually looks for alternatives, such as using the TGA.
This move has historically positively impacted risk assets such as Bitcoin.
This scenario plays out because the government transfers cash from the TGA to the bank accounts of various entities like employers and contractors at commercial banks. That boosts the amount of reserves held by commercial banks.
With more reserves in these banks, the government becomes better positioned to lend money. This increases lending or investment in the broader economy and financial markets.
Bitcoin Price History and Future Expectations
Over the years, BTC’s price has moved alongside changes in the TGA balance. Notably, drawdowns in the TGA have frequently coincided with Bitcoin bull runs, suggesting the inverse correlation between the two.
In his post, Rob pointed out that the TGA is at moderate levels. While the analyst noted that the value is much bigger than in 2017, he emphasized that it is nowhere near 2021’s wild swings.
Rob believes partial spend-downs will continue from the TGA until late March. Subsequently, he thinks a pause will likely occur around tax season before another push.
He emphasized that Q3 historically showed the strongest gains. Considering this factor, Rob advised Bitcoin investors to avoid selling their coins in late Q1 through Q2.
Historically, the price of Bitcoin moves when the TGA reserve declines. Rob believes this trend will continue this year.
However, he emphasized that this year’s scale may be smaller than 2021, especially considering expectations that the Fed will tighten rates.
Rob noted that Bitcoin could catch a bigger tailwind, aligning with a stronger Q3. This depends on whether the Treasury and the Fed will inject more liquidity in late Q2 or early Q3.
BTC Price Forecast, Industry Analysts Projections
As of this writing, BTC has been trading at $97,357, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
Several market analysts have predicted bullish outcomes for the leading coin. Some analysts anticipate Bitcoin will hit resistance near $100,000 before climbing higher.
Former CEO of X, Jack Dorsey, predicted last year that Bitcoin could hit $1 million by 2030. This forecast aligns with that of ARK Invest’s CEO, Cathie Woods.
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