Bitcoin is currently experiencing a deviation below its critical 111-day moving average, according to crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
This technical development comes as BTC faces short-term downward pressure.
The analyst highlighted that these downside deviations from the 111-day moving average have historically presented “fantastic opportunities in terms of bargain moments” for investors.
Rekt Capital noted that while such deviations have become more common and pronounced in the current cycle compared to previous ones, they still represent potential entry points for those looking to accumulate Bitcoin.
Historical Patterns Show Deviations as Bull Market Opportunities
The Pi Cycle Top indicator uses two moving averages to track Bitcoin’s price action throughout market cycles – the 111-day moving average (orange line) and the 350-day moving average multiplied by two (green line).
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin’s price behavior around these moving averages follows consistent patterns across market cycles.
“In bull cycles, price action tends to deviate below the orange moving average,” the analyst explained while examining multiple market cycles dating back to 2012-2013.
These deviations have historically been “brief and momentary” during strong bull trends.
Looking at previous cycles, Rekt Capital pointed out that the 2017 bull run featured quite small and really momentary deviations, while 2021 saw only one major deviation.
According to the analyst, this deviation presented a bargain opportunity before prices rallied again.
In contrast, the current cycle has experienced “quite a few” deviations, which the analyst interprets as these events becoming a little bit more common.
Despite this change in frequency, Rekt Capital maintained that these moments still function as buying opportunities.
The analyst highlighted that during bear markets, the orange 111-day moving average consistently acts as resistance until the market is ready to reverse into a new bull cycle.
Currently, the 111-day moving average sits at approximately $96,500, which Rekt Capital identifies as “the key resistance” Bitcoin needs to reclaim to validate a new uptrend going forward.
Pi Cycle Indicator Projects Distant Top After Recent Moves
The recent downward price action has created an interesting effect on the Pi Cycle Top indicator’s future projections.
According to Rekt Capital, the substantial move to the downside has pushed the predicted Pi Cycle crossover date to February 2032.
“When we have tremendous downside momentum and tremendous stretching of price action towards the downside,” the analyst explained.
This extreme extension suggests the current downward movement is an unsustainable move towards the downside, in Rekt Capital’s assessment.
The timing of the Pi Cycle crossover fluctuates based on recent price action.
Before the recent price decline, the indicator was projecting a market top around July 2025.
Strong upward rallies tend to bring the projected crossover date closer, while sharp downtrends push it further into the future.
Technical BTC Structure Formation Will Determine Next Move
The current price action is forming what Rekt Capital calls a “downside deviation range” that will likely persist for some time before Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the 111-day moving average.
The analyst is closely watching for the development of specific technical structures that could signal the next directional move.
“It’ll be very interesting to see what sort of structure we’re able to develop here,” Rekt Capital noted while examining the charts.
He pointed to a similar situation earlier in the cycle where Bitcoin formed a double bottom pattern during a deviation.
Looking at the current setup, the analyst is monitoring for potential formations such as a “lower low,” an “inverse head and shoulders,” or another “double bottom” pattern.
According to the analyst, these conditions of overselling tend to precede a move to the upside “before too many buyers come into the market and then it’s overbought.”
