Crypto traders still embraced Ethereum (ETH) despite its continued price struggles since the Q1 gains of 2024.
The particular one in 2025 ended in red and analysts speculated that ETH price was potentially set for gains in Q2. Here’s why ETH could perform in the second quarter of 2025.
Dipping Short-term and Medium-term Skew Values
According to the Ethereum Deribit 25 Delta Skew chart both short- and medium-term skew values were decreasing thus indicating potential price changes for Ethereum within the upcoming period.
The 1-day skew reached 1.58 while 1-week skew stood at 4.64 and the 1-month skew reached 0.55 which revealed modifications in market attitudes.
Negative reading continued for the 3-month, 6-month and-yearly timeframes at -1.77, -1.99 and -4.07 respectively which indicated that traders remained bearish about price movements at extended durations even though they demonstrated optimistic sentiment for short-term options.
When short-term options skew diminishes it indicates a decrease in bearish protection requirements because traders anticipate more stable market conditions and price appreciation.
ETH price could rise because options market participants would rethink their position strategies based on this trend.
The 1-month skew showed slight balance between positive and negative expectations although investors seemed less confident about intermediary investments.
The continuous support for higher ETH price could push toward resistance boundaries at $3,800 and $4,000.
However, lied the potential for a pull back to $3,500 in case of an unsuccessful challenge at either level.
The movement of skew values to negative figures throughout all expiration ranges could indicate fresh bearish market pressure that would drive ETH prices towards $3,200.
Ethereum Supply on Exchanges
The exchange supply of Ethereum dipped by 39% from April 2022 until January 2025 when it stopped at 18.3M while ETH prices peaked at $4.25K in late 2023 before stabilizing at $2.044K.
The decreasing supply uncovered in this excerpt confirms a supply shock which supply experts indicate signals bullishness because Ethereum owners choose to put their assets into offline safe keep for potential price appreciation.
The increased institutional support for Ethereum through Fidelity and BlackRock boosts long-term market demand because these firms maintain their interest in tokenized assets.
Decreased network usage together with lower burn rates could maintain short-term profitability through reduced deflationary characteristics of ETH.
The current economic conditions suggest ETH prices will increase shortly due to supply reductions yet the market will experience intermittent price swings because network activity moves gradually while user interest weakens.
Will Q2 Be the Best for ETH Price?
The graph shows Ethereum’s monthly returns from 2016 to 2025, with the worst performing Q1 2025, which had losses of -1.28% in January, -31.95% in February, and -6.94% in March.
Previously, after quarter losses, ETH has posted alternating results. Q2 2018 lost (-70.29%, -13.96%, -21.34%), then Q3 had further negative movements (-8.22%, -34.79%, -17.32%).
Similarly, Q2 2022 was marked by losses (-23.31%, -15%, -28.84%), followed by the losing streak in Q3 (-7.33%, -14.49%, +18.39%). Q3 2023, after a contradictory Q2, however, witnessed gains (+11.13%, +14.46%, +8.67%).
Will Q2 2025 be ETH’s best? A rebound is possible since history shows strong spontaneous bounces after steep drops, like in 2023.
Long-term downtrends, like in 2018 and 2022, however, suggest caution. Institutional supply and demand forces may trigger a rally, but lowering network activity may foreclose on positive gains, so Q2’s fate remains in question.
