Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) offloaded nearly 700 BTC last week, sparking renewed caution among traders.
While some market analysts expect a breakout toward $150,000, Bitcoin ETF outflows and declining exchange activity suggest otherwise.
According to Glassnode data shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, net flows across U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs turned negative, shedding roughly 700 BTC over the past week.
The chart showed heavy outflows in late March, followed by a weak recovery in early April. The drop in ETF exposure coincides with Bitcoin consolidating around the $83,000 mark.
At press time, BTC trades at $82,693, up marginally from earlier lows triggered by tariff-related market volatility.
Bitcoin ETFs Outflows Erode Bullish Confidence
Despite the ETF bleed, some analysts see potential for upside. Market watcher Crypto Elites claimed Bitcoin “might just be starting” a fresh rally toward $150,000.
The optimism stems from historical breakout patterns and cyclical momentum, though the fundamentals appear less aligned.
Tony “The Bull” Severino cautioned against drawing parallels with the 2017 bull market.
He pointed to the monthly stochastic oscillator, which currently mirrors 2018’s bearish phase rather than 2017’s breakout. Severino warned, noting Bitcoin’s 49% drop that followed similar indicators,
“This level aligns more with the beginning of the 2018 bear market.”
His chart shows the oscillator at 60—matching a key level seen before the previous cycle’s collapse.
Macro Tailwinds Boost BTC Outlook
Donny argued the broader macro environment could favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
In a recent post, he highlighted cooling oil prices, sub-2% inflation, and expanding M2 money supply as potential triggers for asset rotation.
“The Fed pivot window is open,” Donny wrote, adding that the Trump administration is likely to push refinancing policies between May and July to stimulate economic momentum.
He expects the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data to rise soon as business activity improves.
Donny also noted a decoupling between BTC and equities, stating,
“$BTC is leading again… holding a clean re-accumulation structure.”
That, he said, mirrors October 2023, just before Bitcoin pushed toward new all-time highs.
Exchange Data Shows Retail Cooling For Bitcoin
In some circles, on-chain data paints a more cautious picture despite the broader bullish tone.
Ali Martinez reported declining exchange-related activity, a signal that retail investors are staying on the sidelines. Martinez noted, citing market uncertainty,
“Investors are hesitating to deposit or withdraw.”
Following Trump’s new tariff announcement on Apr. 2, Bitcoin fell only 4%—a muted reaction compared to previous events.
However, the weak bounce afterward suggests limited buyer conviction, especially from short-term traders.
BTC’s 24-hour trading volume jumped 26.52% to $43.48 billion, but that uptick hasn’t translated into robust inflows.
Cycle Theory Flags Summer Rally, With Caveats
Egrag Crypto added another layer to the debate. He shared a long-term fractal pattern that suggests Bitcoin could rally toward $175,000 by Sept.
Based on a 231-day cycle, the theory projects BTC to break above $100,000 by June—provided bulls hold key support levels.
Egrag warned that a drop below the $69,500-$71,500 zone would invalidate the bullish structure.
His model aligns with earlier price recalibration periods, though the current lack of momentum raises questions about its viability.
The ongoing correction, Egrag noted, could still extend for weeks, in line with the realized price model.
This leaves room for further downside unless stronger institutional or macro drivers intervene.
Bitcoin ETFs outflows and weak investor activity contradict bullish projections. While macro easing and political catalysts could support a breakout, the charts suggest caution.
The stochastic oscillator signals risk. Retail is hesitant. Bitcoin ETF demand is weakening. Yet some traders still eye $150,000.
With Bitcoin now consolidating near $83,700, traders face a split market—half hopeful, half waiting for the next move.
