The Bitcoin price prediction is now at a significant key juncture. Fresh on-chain data shows that the Bitcoin price reached its Short Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, which bulls have historically needed to maintain in their structure.
In addition, Bitcoin’s spot price now trades for $94,149. This puts more urgency on the need for a confirmed breakout before $100,000.
Bitcoin Must Stay Above STH-Realized Price to Sustain Bullish Momentum
Key technical level remains the STH-Realized Price. This is the same as the average cost basis for short-term holders, typically investors who held Bitcoin for less than 155 days.
Out of this metric, it shows the strength of the market when it trades above, which then backs further continuation of the bullishness.
Charts show the Bitcoin price bands of younger UTXO groups (1m—3m) and (3m—6m), which are purple (blue) and currently acting as resistance.
More charts show Bitcoin’s relationship to the STH-Realized Price. At the moment, Bitcoin is closely positioned to this critical line, which indicates market indecision.
Similar to previous cycles, a large majority have remained below the STH-Realized Price and correlated with market consolidations and corrections.
As of press time, the Bitcoin price stood at $94,149, 0.23% down in the last 24 hours. It has a total market cap of $1.86 Trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $17.45 Billion.
The Bitcoin market is nearly at a psychological limit of almost $100,000. Bitcoin shows strong historical price support from long-term price growth.
However, this time, the short-term fight to realize price levels to climb is slower.
Hedging Positions While Bitcoin Stays Below Key Resistance
Despite being under the STH Realized Price, Bitcoin’s spot price is hedged by traders and investors with a delicate technical setup.
In the past, when Bitcoin couldn’t hold above this level, volatility usually spiked, and market corrections came in.
As a result, since Bitcoin is hovering just below $95,000, one can position towards downside risk by simply maintaining a hedge from options or futures contracts.
An upward break of STH-Realized Price ($95,000 to $96,000) with a decisive consolidation above that level could send the market to the $100,000 region quite rapidly.
Otherwise, the chance of a correction at significant support levels near $90,000 or $86,000 is high.
However, funding rates and derivatives market premiums could also affect the market dynamics. During normal healthy bull runs, funding rates tend to be positive but not quite over the top.
An open interest or leverage spike without spot buying confirmation may expose the market to liquidations.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Breakout Above $95K Critical for $100K Push
From the technical standpoint, the path forward for Bitcoin is clear. The bitcoin STH momentum must survive to continue a bull run.
This means for this bitcoin to realize, it needs to take and hold levels above its STH Realized Price. In particular, Samerylaimus must consolidate above the $95,000 level and slowly ascend to $100,000.
A breakdown of such a confirmable breakout is to be expected in Bitcoin. However, if it fails to do so, a pullback to denser support zones between $86,000 and $90,000 could happen.
Overall, market sentiment is cautiously bullish. Going up from previous cycles, Bitcoin’s long-term chart structure confirms that upward potential remains.
However, immediate-term handling is required for Bitcoin to realize the STH-Realized Price.
A close above $95,000 with substantial volume would ring the bell for a rally to new all-time highs and break above $100,000 on the price chart for the first time.
