Cardano’s price is approaching a point that could decide whether it breaks into a major move or faces further consolidation, according to crypto analyst Dan Gambardello.
In his recent analysis, Gambardello describes Cardano price as being “so close, but yet so far” from a major breakout.
The cryptocurrency is currently testing the lower range of major resistance at the 200-week moving average, with the weekly candle failing to close above this critical level in the previous week.
Cardano Price Faces Multiple Layers of Resistance
Cardano is currently facing multiple layers of technical resistance that must be overcome to confirm a bullish breakout.
According to Gambardello, ADA is testing the critical 200-week moving average. He describes this as “the bottom range of resistance” and part of what he calls the “bull market door.”
The 200-day moving average at $0.77 is the next major resistance level, followed by the 20-week moving average at $0.80.
This creates a tight resistance zone between $0.77 and $0.80 that will be crucial for ADA to overcome.
“77 cents to 80 cents is the area for ADA to break,” Gambardello notes in his analysis. He emphasized that this range is the battleground between bulls and bears.
If Cardano price can successfully push above these levels, the analyst identifies $1.25 as the next major resistance target. Gambardello points out that this level would mark “just the beginning of the parabolic move.”
He drew parallels to ADA’s previous cycle when it broke above $0.37 before eventually reaching $3.00.
Gambardello Cautions About Powell this Week
Despite the bullish technical setup forming on Cardano’s chart, Gambardello warns that external market factors could impact Cardano price action in the coming days.
The analyst specifically highlights Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, scheduled for Wednesday, as a potential market-moving event. Gambardello cautions,
“It’s a massive warning for everybody, for the bulls, a massive warning for the bears. Because this can go one way or the other. Jerome Powell set to speak, I believe on Wednesday. And so, you know how weeks like this go. It can be very volatile.”
The analyst notes that positive commentary from Powell could trigger higher highs for the market. This could potentially help ADA break through its resistance levels. Conversely, negative sentiment could drive prices lower and test support levels.
Beyond Powell’s speech, Gambardello mentions other external factors that could influence Cardano’s price movement this week. This includes developments in traditional markets and potential news regarding tariffs.
If bearish scenarios come into play, the analyst identifies key support levels for ADA. Using Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low to swing high, he points to $0.60 (61.8% retracement) and $0.56 (78.6% retracement) as potential higher low areas where support might form.
While acknowledging that traders might not want to consider a drop to the $0.50s, he notes that such a pullback would represent only a 17-22% correction.
Cardano Bulls Have an Edge
The weekly timeframe provides the clearest picture of Cardano’s current technical position according to Gambardello. The analyst focuses on the weekly chart as providing “probably the most meaningful” view for ADA.
Gambardello’s technical analysis system shows that while bulls aren’t in full control, they currently “have an edge” in the market. This is seen in momentum oscillators that are beginning to turn positive after reaching levels similar to previous cycle bottoms.
His risk model indicates that Cardano price risk level has dropped to around 31, which he describes as “a pre-bull market number in terms of Cardano risk.”
For confirmation of a true breakout, Gambardello emphasizes that ADA needs to not only close a weekly candle above the 200-week moving average but achieve “important separation” from this level. This would need sustained price action above $0.77-$0.80 resistance zone.
If Cardano price can successfully establish itself above these levels, the analyst believes the path would be clear to the upper range of his “bull market doors” around $1.25.
While this target might sound ambitious, Gambardello puts it in perspective by comparing it to ADA’s previous cycle:
“That is just the beginning of the parabolic move. Similar to how the beginning of the parabolic move for ADA back here was around 37 cents. It went on to $3.”
