Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price risks fall to the $65,000 level, Unocoin CEO Sathvik Vishwanath cautioned.
- The downturn could come in response to the FOMC meeting on March 18 if the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.
- According to the latest update, market participants expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged in today’s meeting.
The crypto market is entering a decisive phase ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. Sathvik Vishwanath, Unocoin’s co-founder and CEO, notes that a hawkish move would potentially force Bitcoin (BTC) price downwards. In such an event, BTC price could fall to $65,000, he cautioned.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Unocoin CEO Says Fed Policy Is Key
In an exclusive statement acquired by The Coin Republic, Vishwanath noted that the Fed is unlikely to raise or lower rates, but forward guidance on monetary policy will play a major role. “The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision… is almost certain to result in no change, with market expectations placing the probability of a hold at around 99%,” he said.
His comments align with data on the CME Fedwatch tool, which shows a 98.9% probability of a Fed rate pause. Although a pause is expected, the most crucial variable remains the policymakers’ tone. Vishwanath cautioned that if policymakers adopt a hawkish stance where interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period, it could weigh on risk assets like BTC.
He foresees a downward trajectory for Bitcoin price in such circumstances. “In such a scenario, Bitcoin may face downward pressure, potentially slipping toward the $65,000 range as investors shift toward safer investments,” Vishwanath added. In addition, he noted that a tightening of liquidity could pose a significant blow to the crypto market.
Meanwhile, Martin Folb commented that a change of leadership in May, with Kevin Warsh replacing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, could speed up the rate cut process. However, macroeconomic risks remain a key factor in the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
Jeremy Schwartz, a senior economist at Nomura, said, “The conflict with Iran is boosting global energy prices. That’s going to lead to some headline inflation, but potentially also some pass-through into some core inflation components.” He further opined that the labor market “doesn’t seem to be deteriorating,” which suggests that the Fed is not in a hurry to take action.
Is a Positive Outcome on Cards?
Nonetheless, the positive prospect is not completely out of the question, Vishwanath remarked. On the contrary, if the Fed signals a dovish outlook, hinting at potential rate cuts later in 2026, it could provide a boost to the crypto market, he said.
Under such conditions, he noted that Bitcoin price could see stronger upside momentum. A surge in liquidity and improved investor sentiment may push Bitcoin higher, potentially exceeding $75,000, Vishwanath stated.
Still, he warned that the crypto market will remain volatile regardless of the outcome. In the short term, Vishwanath believes the market may fluctuate, and even positive news may trigger a temporary sell-off as traders squeeze profits.
The Unocoin CEO pointed to the “sell-the-news” behavior often seen in financial markets. Moreover, since the U.S. PPI data is due today as well, the crypto market could see increased volatility.
In another exclusive statement curated by The Coin Republic, Vikas Gupta, Bybit India’s Country Manager, shared his views on the FOMC meeting and its impact on BTC price. He said,
“The upcoming Federal Reserve decision will be a key near-term catalyst for crypto markets. A pause or rate cut could reinforce liquidity conditions and support risk assets like Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, including altcoins, while any unexpected hike may trigger short-term pressure as capital rotates toward safer assets such as bonds.”
He added that the overall perspective is optimistic and is being propelled by the high inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, increased mainstream, and the structural impact of halving cycles. Gupta anticipates a few fluctuations around the Fed announcement. However, he noted that long-term investors still view these periods as opportunities to accumulate on a disciplined basis.
