Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price plunged below the $70,000 support level today.
- The decline comes ahead of a major options expiry event worth over $18 billion.
- In addition, Trump’s comments have reignited stress around geopolitical tensions amid the Iran-Isreal conflict.
Bitcoin price dropped below the key support levels of 70,000, retracing its previous gains. BTC was trading around $69,400, down 2.60% amid derivatives positioning, macro uncertainty, and profit-taking. The downfall comes ahead of a giant $18.6 billion expiry of options on Friday.
Bitcoin Options Expiry to Drive Volatility
The upcoming options expiry is one of the biggest in recent months. According to traders, it is likely to influence the near-term direction. Bitcoin’s price surged past $71,000 in the short term as hopes of a de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran grew. Sentiment soon changed, however, upon a new statement by U.S. President Donald Trump.
On Truth Social, Trump wrote, “The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal… They better get serious soon, before it is too late.” The remarks once again brought about geopolitical uncertainty, which initiated a move towards risk assets.
Markets are under significant pressure due to the $18.6 billion in Bitcoin options expiring, according to Deribit data. Large expiries are known to trigger extreme price movements when traders either hedge or unhedge their positions. Now that BTC price is around $69,000-70,000, the market is nearly hitting critical strike zones, which means that volatility spikes may occur.
BTC Exchange Balance Hits 7-Year Low
Positioning is concentrated on round-number Bitcoin price strikes like $70,000 and $75,000. A sustained move below $70,000 will put in additional contracts out of the money, compelling traders to change exposures. This effect can increase a downward movement in the short-term.
On-chain metrics are moving in the opposite direction. Bitcoin on exchanges is below 2.7 million BTC, the lowest since 7 years ago, and there is a structural decline in available sell-side liquidity.
This is an approximation of the cut-off of liquid by an estimated $50+ billion more than the previous cycle peaks. Such a downward trend is usually an indicator of accretion and long-term bullishness. However, in this environment, macro-based caution is currently cancelling the bullish supply story.
Meanwhile, the number of stablecoins has already risen to approximately $316 billion. It means there is a considerable amount of idle funds that might enter the market once the situation improves.
What’s Next For Bitcoin Price?
Bitcoin price action shows indecision rather than trend continuation, according to Michaël van de Poppe. His chart shows that liquidity above prior highs has already been taken, while BTC price is now consolidating within a defined range.
He wrote, “Bitcoin remains stuck in the range. Unfortunately, no breakout yet, and no clear direction.” The chart shows there is a series of higher lows developing around the level of $65,000 to $66,000, indicating short term support. However, frequent rejection from the $75,000-80,000 resistance area indicates poor follow-through by bulls.
In the event of a support failure, Poppe said there was a risk of a liquidity sweep to the downside. He said, “it will probably cascade towards $60K for a low sweep.” Another critical mid-point range to keep an eye on is in and around $79,000-80,000 as an upside target, assuming momentum comes back.
Bitcoin’s price not holding the $70,000 level draws attention to the $65,000 level as major support. Meanwhile, the upside remains capped below $75,000.
