Key Insights
- Oil prices remained above $100 as new geopolitical supply risks emerged.
- Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery sustained damage during the Sept. 20 drone attack.
- Russian refinery throughput had already fallen 30% year over year in June.
Oil prices remained above $100 as trading resumed after a drone attack damaged Moscow’s Kapotnya refinery on Sept. 20. West Texas Intermediate rose toward $101.06, while Brent traded near $104.68 as energy markets assessed several geopolitical supply risks.
The Moscow strike added pressure to a Russian refining system already operating well below 2025 levels. However, early oil gains were also linked to renewed Middle East tensions, making it difficult to isolate the refinery attack’s market impact.
Oil Prices Today Hold Near $100 After Friday Pullback
Trading Economics showed West Texas Intermediate crude closing Sept. 18 at $100.30 per barrel. The contract fell 1.58% that day but remained 18.85% higher over one month. Its year-over-year gain stood at 60.74%.
Brent crude traded at $103.87, leaving the international benchmark above West Texas Intermediate. Trading Economics projected crude near $100.86 by the end of the third quarter. The forecast remained close to Friday’s closing level.
Reuters reported that Friday’s decline followed easing concerns around some Middle East supply disruptions. Brent settled at $104.87, while West Texas Intermediate ended at the same $100.30 level. Those prices still reflected tight physical conditions across several producing regions.
OIL Prices Face Fresh Risk From Moscow Refinery Strike
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said forces struck a key Russian oil facility overnight. He said Ukraine also targeted a logistics site in the Moscow region. Several Ukrainian long-range systems supported the Sept. 20 operation.
Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said the Kapotnya refinery sustained damage during the drone attack. Russian authorities also reported two deaths elsewhere in the Moscow region. Reuters identified Kapotnya as the oil facility targeted during the operation.
The refinery processed 11.6 million metric tons of crude during 2024. It produced 2.9 million tons of gasoline and 3.2 million tons of diesel. The facility had also faced repeated attacks during 2026.
Gazprom Neft said Sept. 3 that the refinery received equipment for a deep-processing complex. The company said the project would complete its modernization program.
The latest strike added another supply risk before the next oil trading session. Damage assessments remained incomplete Sunday, leaving the potential production impact unclear.
Oil Prices Reflect Broader Russian Refining Pressure
International Energy Agency analysts David Martin and Talya Vatman documented deeper pressure across Russia’s refining sector. Their Sept. 17 analysis put installed Russian refining capacity near 6.5 million barrels per day.
The agency said Russian refinery throughput fell to 3.8 million barrels daily in June. That marked the lowest level in more than two decades. Throughput also stood roughly 30% below the previous year.
The International Energy Agency estimated gasoline production fell about 20% from 2025 levels. Diesel output dropped nearly 30%, prompting Russian authorities to restrict fuel exports. The agency counted 32 major refineries across Russia.
Its analysis said a Russian refinery was hit every three days on average through August. Only five major refineries remained untouched by Ukrainian drones at August’s end.
U.S. Energy Information Administration data also showed tighter American crude buffers. Commercial crude inventories stood at 423.4 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 11. Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks stood near 285 million barrels.
Bitcoin Derivatives Stay Firm Despite Energy Risk
CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin price near $80,464 on Sept. 20, up 0.68% over 24 hours. The move showed crypto traders had not broadly shifted toward defensive positioning during Sunday trading.
CoinMarketCap placed aggregate crypto derivatives open interest near $432.48 billion. Twenty-four-hour liquidations totaled about $249.85 million, with long liquidations exceeding short liquidations. Bitcoin derivatives open interest stood near $89.05 billion in a separate market snapshot.
JPMorgan research added another caution around energy markets. Reuters reported Sept. 17 that the bank lacked a clear baseline view. JPMorgan estimated Brent’s fair value near $90 while prices traded above $100.
The bank said prices reflected risks of further supply losses beyond existing disruptions. It estimated crude and product inventories had declined by 555 million barrels. Demand ran 4.4 million barrels daily below year-earlier levels, JPMorgan added.
The next test comes when the next commodity session begins after the Sept. 20 strike. Traders will assess Kapotnya damage, Russian fuel output, and Middle East supply conditions. The Energy Information Administration will release its next weekly U.S. petroleum data on Sept. 23. That release will update crude, gasoline, distillate, and reserve inventories.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Commodity investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
