Key Insights
- Bitcoin price approached the U.S. midterms near $78,000, with momentum showing weakness.
- Historical data showed Bitcoin reached three previous cycle lows after midterm elections.
- Bitcoin faced immediate support at $77,345, while resistance remained near $78,329.
Bitcoin price faced another test on Monday as analysts examined historical corrections surrounding U.S. midterm elections. The cryptocurrency traded near $78,038 on Bitstamp, with the Nov. 3 vote approaching.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern of Bitcoin corrections around four previous midterm elections. Coin Bureau separately identified three cycle bottoms that followed U.S. congressional votes.
The observations emerged after Bitcoin lost 7.3% in October, extending its recent weakness. Meanwhile, daily technical indicators pointed to fading buying momentum near $78,000.
Bitcoin Price Faces Historical Midterm Election Pattern
Martinez, who publishes market analysis under Ali Charts, warned that previous midterm elections coincided with major Bitcoin corrections.
He cited four elections and four subsequent corrections, suggesting the approaching vote deserved attention. His observation centered on historical market behavior rather than a confirmed prediction.
Coin Bureau examined the timing of Bitcoin’s last three major cycle bottoms. Its analysis placed the 2015 bottom 71 days after the November 2014 election. Bitcoin subsequently bottomed 39 days after the 2018 midterms.
For the 2022 cycle, Coin Bureau identified a bottom 13 days after the election. Historical Bitstamp closing prices also placed the lowest daily close on Nov. 21, 2022.
The three episodes followed different market conditions and produced different outcomes.
In 2015, Bitcoin reached approximately $171 after a prolonged bear market. December 2018 brought another cycle bottom near $3,180 following the previous year’s rally.
The November 2022 decline unfolded during the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX. Bitcoin eventually fell toward $15,500 as the crisis spread across digital asset markets.
These historical episodes established a recurring timeline, although they did not prove elections caused the declines.
Bitcoin Price Tests $77,345 Support as RSI Weakens
Bitcoin’s daily chart showed price consolidating around $78,038 on Nov. 2 after retreating from October highs.
Bitstamp data displayed resistance around $78,329, with immediate support near $77,345. The narrow range followed several weeks of declining prices from the $85,000–$87,000 region.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, stood at 38.93. Its accompanying moving average registered 43.23.
Both readings remained below the neutral 50 level, reflecting weaker momentum. However, the RSI had not reached the conventional oversold threshold of 30.
A sustained break below $77,345 would expose the lower trading area around $75,000. Further selling could bring the $73,000 region into focus, where Bitcoin previously encountered resistance.
On the upside, reclaiming $78,329 would mark an initial improvement in short-term momentum.
Bitcoin would then face another test around $80,000, a price area that featured repeatedly in recent trading.
The chart also showed that Bitcoin had recovered from its June lows before weakening again during October.
That recovery complicates comparisons with previous midterm cycles, particularly those involving prolonged bear markets.
October Losses Add Pressure Before U.S. Midterm Elections
Bitcoin entered November after recording another negative October performance. Market commentator Niels reported a 7.3% October decline, following a 3.9% loss during the corresponding month in 2025. Historical returns data independently supported the latest monthly decline.
Niels also pointed to November’s stronger historical average performance, although long-term averages offer limited guidance for individual months.
The upcoming congressional elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and influence the Senate’s composition.
All 435 House seats are up for election, alongside approximately one-third of Senate seats. The results will shape the legislative environment facing the next Congress.
However, election outcomes alone cannot establish the direction of Bitcoin’s next price movement.
Wu Blockchain also identified U.S. employment data and corporate earnings as important developments during the election week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled September job-openings data for Nov. 3, coinciding with election day.
Its October employment report will follow on Nov. 6, while the October Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for Nov. 10. Those releases could influence expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy as Bitcoin approaches the next trading week.
This article provides market information, not investment advice. Stock investments carry volatility and potential losses.
