The crypto market remained resilient as Bitcoin and Ethereum prices recovered above their key support levels, lifting confidence among investors.
However, upcoming macro events like the US PCE inflation release, crypto options expiry, and others could turn the market volatile again, possibly triggering a pullback or crash.
US PCE Inflation to Rise in Line With Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Stance?
After the US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony in the U.S. Congress and the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, global stock markets were green, the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields plummeted, and gold rose slightly again.
This somewhat supports further recovery in Bitcoin price, but will it last? The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to release the U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, US PCE inflation data, on June 27.
Economists expect the headline PCE to come in at 2.3%, up from 2.1% in the previous month. Whereas, the month-over-month PCE inflation is forecasted to rise 0.1%, the same as in the previous month.
The annual core US PCE inflation is expected at 2.6%, climbed higher from 2.5% in the earlier month. The monthly core PCE is expected to rise 0.1%, the same as in the last month.
The PCE estimates are in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish stance, implying a reluctance to cut rates due to US tariffs. A stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields could lead to Bitcoin selloff risks, increasing selling pressure in the crypto market.
Interestingly, the US dollar index (DXY) has dropped 0.54% to 97.17. Moreover, the US 10-year Treasury yield also dipped to 4.267%.
Over $17 Billion in Crypto Options Expiry
139K BTC options with a notional value of more than $15 billion are set to expire on Friday on Deribit. At the time of writing, the put-call ratio was 0.74, suggesting a slightly bearish sentiment among traders.
Moreover, the max pain point is at $102,000, indicating a high chance of correction in BTC price. Traders may adjust their positions, which can lead to increased volatility.
In contrast, 936K ETH options with a notional value of almost $2.3 billion are set to expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.52.
Also, the max pain point was $2,200 at the time of writing. Sentiment has turned slightly bearish for Ethereum as evidenced by the put-call ratio of 1 in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals Selloff Risks
CryptoQuant’s latest research revealed that miners are witnessing their worst payday in a year. Daily revenue slipped to $34 million in June, the lowest since April.
Falling fees and Bitcoin’s price drop are crushing margins, which could force miners to sell their BTC holdings.
In an X post, CryptoQuant pointed out that Bitcoin MVRV Ratio momentum is stalling. “Right now, that slope is flattening, suggesting a potential slowdown.
This doesn’t mean a downtrend is imminent. But it could signal that we are entering the late stage,” it added.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Prices Capped by Smart Money
10x Research revealed that smart money is silently capping Bitcoin’s upside, causing the price to look stuck.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are recording billions in inflows and favorable policy shifts. However, the market remains range-bound, with volatility fading and upside capped, according to a new model by the firm.
BTC price was trading sideways at the time of writing, with the price holding above $107K. The 24-hour low and high were $106,817 and $108,305, respectively.
ETH price jumped 1% in the past 24 hours, with the price trading at $2,451 at the time of writing. The 24-hour low and high were $2,394 and $2,519, respectively.
Traders turned cautious as an increase in Bitcoin and Ethereum ownership by Wall Street companies and long-term holders caused a decline in volatility.
