Key Insights:
- Bitcoin price revisits its 200-week moving average, a level closely watched during past bear markets.
- Bitcoin hashrate slips modestly as miners face growing pressure from high network difficulty.
- Newer Bitcoin holders now control a larger share of realized capitalization than two years ago.
Bitcoin price has fallen back to levels seen in 2024, while a slowdown in Bitcoin’s hashrate is drawing fresh attention from traders and miners. Recent data shows mining activity has weakened slightly, long-term holding is increasing, and Bitcoin has returned to a level that has often mattered during past bear markets.
State of Bitcoin Hashrate
Bitcoin’s hashrate has started to move lower after months of growth. Hashrate reflects the computing power used to secure the network and process transactions. When it drops, it often means some miners are finding it harder to operate profitably.
According to market analyst Woominkyu, the latest decline remains small compared with what Bitcoin has seen during earlier downturns. The seven-day average hashrate is down about 6.6%, while the 30-day average has slipped roughly 3%.
That may sound concerning, but past cycles recorded much larger falls. During the China mining ban in 2021, hashrate dropped by more than 40%. The market also saw notable declines in 2018, 2022, and the period following the 2024 halving, as well as another pullback in late 2025.
Past market bottoms have often appeared when weaker mining operations shut down and leave the network. That process is commonly referred to as miner capitulation. The current pullback has not reached that stage, but some observers believe it is a development worth watching.
Mining difficulty remains high, which means miners must spend more resources to earn rewards. Despite that pressure, there has been little evidence of large-scale selling from miners. Available data shows reserves have remained mostly steady.
For now, the figures suggest miners are staying in the market rather than rushing to sell their holdings. That has helped ease fears that the latest decline in hashrate could trigger a deeper wave of selling.
Why Has Bitcoin Price Reset to 2024 Low?
The drop in Bitcoin price has surprised some investors, as BTC is trading at levels last seen roughly two years ago. However, data from the network tells a slightly different story. CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju pointed to a major change in who holds Bitcoin today.
Investors who bought during the current market cycle now account for 53% of Bitcoin’s realized capitalization. Two years ago, that group represented only 15%. Realized capitalization tracks the value of coins based on their last traded price.
The increase suggests many coins have changed hands during this cycle and are now held by newer investors. Ki Young Ju noted that the last market cycle reached a bottom when this group controlled about 68% of realized capitalization.
The current figure remains below that level, but it shows a gradual shift. In simple terms, some investors who entered the market recently are choosing to hold their coins instead of selling after every decline.
That trend does not guarantee a price recovery. However, it shows that ownership is slowly becoming more concentrated among holders willing to wait through difficult periods.
BTC Moving Average Analysis
Another signal attracting attention is Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. This long-term indicator has played an important role during previous bear markets. Market commentator Colin Talks Crypto recently noted that the Bitcoin price has once again touched the 200-week moving average.
In earlier cycles, this level often acted as support after extended declines.
Traders watch this indicator because it has a long history of marking areas where heavy selling begins to slow. While there is no certainty that history will repeat itself, many participants see it as an important level on the chart.
The next move remains unclear. Some expect a bounce after the recent sharp decline. Others believe more weakness is still possible.
What’s clear is that three signals are now receiving attention at the same time: a modest hashrate decline, a growing share of long-term holders, and Bitcoin’s return to the 200-week moving average.
