Key Insights
- Six crypto research firms have identified conditions associated with previous Bitcoin market bottoms.
- CryptoQuant, K33 and Glassnode data point to accumulation, investor losses and weakening sell-side pressure.
- None of the firms has confirmed a Bitcoin bottom, while macro and supply risks remain.
Several major crypto research firms are pointing toward conditions historically associated with Bitcoin market bottoms. CryptoQuant, 10x Research, K33, Glassnode, Bitfinex and Grayscale have recently highlighted accumulation, declining selling pressure, investor losses and improving market structure.
The firms use different methodologies, making the overlap more notable. Some focus on wallet behavior and realized prices, while others track derivatives, supply profitability and macroeconomic conditions. Their conclusions are not identical, but each has identified signs suggesting Bitcoin may be moving through the later stage of its current bear market.
None of the firms has confirmed that Bitcoin has already reached a durable cycle bottom. The current data instead suggests that several bottoming indicators are appearing at the same time, while demand and macro conditions remain important confirmation factors.
On-Chain Data Supports the Bitcoin Bottom Thesis
CryptoQuant has identified several signs that large investors are absorbing supply while smaller holders reduce their exposure. The firm’s recent analysis showed increasing accumulation among some larger Bitcoin wallet cohorts as prices remained under pressure.
Bitcoin whale balances, excluding exchanges, mining pools and other institutional entities, have increased during recent months. The supplied CryptoQuant data showed balances rising from 2.87 million BTC in December 2025 to approximately 3.06 million BTC.
Accumulation accelerated when Bitcoin moved below $60,000 in June. Whale holdings nevertheless remained below their 2025 peak near 3.23 million BTC, leaving room for additional accumulation if larger investors continue adding supply.
CryptoQuant’s broader view remains cautious because improving whale behavior does not automatically confirm a trend reversal. The firm has previously described Bitcoin’s rebound as a bear-market recovery while noting that demand remains insufficient to establish a confirmed bullish regime.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, has also highlighted Bitcoin’s realized price as an important valuation reference. Historically, major Bitcoin bear markets have approached or fallen below realized price before establishing longer-term bottoms.
Ethereum Shows Stronger Large-Holder Accumulation
Ethereum showed one of the clearest accumulation patterns across the three assets included in the supplied CryptoQuant analysis. Wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH increased their combined balances to approximately 19.6 million ETH.
Wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH also increased their positions, while addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH reduced their balances. Moreno described the pattern as stronger holders absorbing supply released by weaker market participants.
Ethereum’s realized-price position also adds weight to the argument. ETH was the only asset among Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP trading below its realized price in the supplied analysis, meaning the average holder remained at an unrealized loss.
Despite that pressure, larger wallet cohorts continued increasing their holdings. That divergence makes Ethereum one of the stronger examples of accumulation during the current market downturn.
XRP showed a more muted version of the same trend. Large holders remained active, but the supplied CryptoQuant analysis suggested they were absorbing available supply gradually rather than buying aggressively.
Cumulative volume delta also moved toward neutral territory. The indicator measures whether aggressive buyers or sellers dominate execution, so a neutral reading suggests that selling pressure may be balancing with demand.
K33 Finds Historical Bitcoin Bottom Pattern
K33 Research reached a similar conclusion using Bitcoin supply profitability rather than wallet accumulation. The firm’s July report showed that more than half of Bitcoin’s circulating supply had moved into an unrealized loss.
Historically, comparable readings have appeared close to major cycle bottoms. K33 found that Bitcoin reached a low 31 days after crossing the threshold in 2017, 23 days later in 2018 and approximately 13 days later in 2022.
The 2014 bear market remained a notable exception because Bitcoin took considerably longer to establish its final low. That difference shows why the indicator cannot provide a precise bottom date.
K33’s data therefore supports a bottoming thesis without confirming the timing. If the current cycle follows patterns seen in 2017, 2018 or 2022, the market could establish a low within weeks of crossing the loss threshold.
The current cycle also contains structural differences from previous bear markets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury companies now control a larger share of circulating supply, which may change how selling pressure develops.
Glassnode Sees Sell-Side Exhaustion Developing
Glassnode has also identified conditions associated with mature bear-market phases. Its sell-side exhaustion indicators have moved toward ranges historically observed near previous Bitcoin market bottoms.
The firm’s data also showed long-term holders gradually returning to accumulation while a larger share of circulating Bitcoin moved into unrealized losses. Those trends suggest that patient buyers are absorbing some supply from investors exiting during weakness.
However, Glassnode has not declared a confirmed market bottom. The firm has also reported elevated realized losses among long-term holders, showing that some experienced investors continued selling despite improving accumulation signals.
That combination suggests Bitcoin may be going through a bottoming process rather than already completing one. Selling pressure has weakened in several areas, but it has not disappeared completely.
Glassnode’s options data has added another layer to the analysis. Bitcoin implied volatility declined toward historically low levels as demand for upside call options weakened, reflecting reduced expectations for immediate large price moves.
Low volatility combined with heavy investor losses has appeared during previous late-stage bear markets. However, volatility can remain depressed for extended periods before a sustained recovery begins.
Bitfinex Tracks Heavy Accumulation Near Current Prices
Bitfinex analysts have focused on where Bitcoin supply changed hands during the recent consolidation. Their analysis showed approximately 155,000 BTC accumulated between $62,000 and $65,000.
That area represented one of the largest concentration zones within the current cycle. Large amounts of Bitcoin changing hands around similar levels can create an important cost-basis region for future support or resistance.
Bitfinex also reported that about 54.6% of total Bitcoin supply was in profit around Aug. 2. That reading placed the average market participant close to breakeven conditions.
Historically, readings near the 50% level have appeared during periods of severe market stress and around developing market bottoms. However, the indicator cannot determine whether holders accumulated in that region will continue holding if Bitcoin falls again.
The $62,000–$65,000 zone therefore remains an important market area. Continued accumulation could strengthen support, while renewed selling could turn the same region into resistance.
Grayscale Focuses on Federal Reserve Policy
Grayscale approached the Bitcoin bottom debate through macroeconomic conditions rather than purely on-chain indicators. Zach Pandl, the firm’s head of research, suggested that Bitcoin may have already reached its bottom earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would imply.
Traditional cycle models would place a possible bottom around September or October. Pandl argued that Federal Reserve policy may now matter more than previous halving-based patterns because institutional participation has increased Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquidity and interest rates.
The latest U.S. labor data weakened expectations for another September rate increase. July payrolls fell by 23,000, leading traders to reduce the probability of a September hike.
Lower interest-rate expectations generally support risk assets because they reduce pressure from bond yields and tighter financial conditions. Bitcoin could therefore benefit if the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged.
However, upcoming inflation data remains important. Persistent price pressures could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy and weaken the current recovery thesis.
10x Research Warns About Bitcoin Supply Risks
10x Research remains more cautious despite signs of stabilization. The firm has highlighted Bitcoin miner selling and weaker corporate treasury demand as potential risks to the bottoming process.
Bitcoin miners face higher operating costs and growing capital requirements as several companies expand into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing infrastructure. Those investments can increase the need to monetize Bitcoin reserves.
Some public miners have already increased Bitcoin sales during 2026. Treasury companies have also reduced holdings in some cases to fund operating expenses and balance-sheet requirements.
10x Research has estimated that miners could add substantial supply to the market if the shift toward AI infrastructure accelerates. Any large increase in selling would place additional pressure on Bitcoin while demand remains relatively weak.
These risks do not invalidate the bottom thesis, but they show why accumulation alone may not be sufficient. The market also needs enough demand to absorb supply from miners, treasury companies and other large holders.
What Comes Next for the Bitcoin Bottom Thesis
The six research firms are not making the same prediction, but their findings point toward similar market conditions. Large holders are accumulating in several datasets, more investors are sitting on unrealized losses, and sell-side pressure is weakening across multiple indicators.
Those patterns have appeared near previous Bitcoin bottoms. However, historical similarities do not guarantee the same outcome during the current cycle, particularly as ETFs and corporate holders play a larger market role.
Federal Reserve policy remains another major factor. A September rate increase could pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets, while unchanged rates could strengthen the argument that the market has already absorbed much of the current downturn.
Bitcoin’s price structure also remains unresolved. A sustained breakout above recent resistance would strengthen evidence that accumulation is transitioning into recovery, while another decline below the June lows would weaken the current bottom thesis.
The common message from CryptoQuant, 10x Research, K33, Glassnode, Bitfinex and Grayscale is therefore not that Bitcoin’s bottom has been confirmed. Instead, several independent indicators are now showing conditions historically associated with late-stage bear markets, making the coming weeks important for confirmation.
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Readers should conduct independent research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
